Monday blues or Dog days of summer

Monday blues or Dog days of summer

Whether a case of the Monday blues, the Dog Days of summer setting in or a combination of both, markets struggled for direction despite upbeat US economic data while quarterly earnings have failed to inspire investors. And we might chalk it up to a typical summer afternoon NY trading session.

Event-wise, apart from the Tump/Putin headline which managed to supplant China-US trade headlines, there has been very little news worth to report as the markets hardly budged on the positive US retail sales print and remained in stasis during the Empire survey. And  Sterling barely blinked after UK PM May scraped through a Customs Union amendment by 305 votes to 302. However, with May yet again snatching victory from the jaws of defeat, it should provide a reasonable underpin for the Pound over the near term although this morning activity has been remarkably muted

US markets
Wall Street opened with a misfire. Investor expectations were running at peak optimism, and while banks stocks looked favourable, sentiment turned sour, as oil price worries intensified.

Then the thud that was heard up and down wall street as Netflix fell off a cliff in late trading after posting dispiriting subscriber growth last quarter. Indeed, with one of the markets key highfliers going into the tank, it could be a tough 24 hours for FANG stocks. FANGS ‘s have been the undisputed heavyweight champions of the equity world, and pretty much impervious to risk off and trade wars. But when you start looking under the hood and strip away a couple of FANG outperformers, US equity markets aren’t all that cheery. This negative Netflix result could spur more moves into to cash as investors may finally adopt a delayed sell in May and go away strategy.

Oil markets

Oil markets

Oil markets are slip sliding away under renewed selling pressure from long liquidation as bearish sentiment grows thick k with the US  actively considering tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, the chatter of increased Russian oil production after Putin extends the US an olive branch to add more barrels, while the US considers waivers on Iranian sanctions. The sweeping slew of bearish signals has wholly eroded market sentiment with Brent Crude breaking bad now trading below May 2018  lows.

Also, with the market ignoring bullish indicators, specifically the latest production outage in Libya, where the 290,000 bpd Sharara oil field is reducing output due to an act of terrorism.  It calls attention to just how big of a shift market sentiment has undergone since last Wednesday’s high-volume meltdown.

Gold markets

Bearish sentiment continues to engulf the precious metal space after a break of the fundamental $ 1,240 support level overnight while breaching multi-year trendlines. Markets are becoming more e convinced about a strengthening dollar, which will unquestionably act as a most significant headwind and could continue to pressure gold lower as safe-haven demand remains muted.

In fact, the dollar slipped lower in modest price action, yet gold still fell below critical support. Ignoring even the slightest bullish indicator is an unfortunate sign and suggests we could push significantly lower when the USD moves out of its current melancholic state and starts to reassert its presence.

Currency Markets

The USD eased lower for the third consecutive day as trade war headline decreased and some of last week’s froth give way to position neutrality. But we’ve been in this back and forth momentum on the USD since the beginning of June. Whenever the USD picks up steam, everyone boards the rally bus only to get whipped sawed by a brutal correction. But as we move into the dog days of summer, expect volumes to taper but volatility to remain elevated given considerable headline risk. But overall. caution prevails

When markets turn directionless, it’s time to revert into the interest rate matrix for clarity which suggests the USD has more gas in the tank than say the EUR, JPY or the AUD.

GBP: In general, I think everyone likes GBP higher. Therefore, the crowded trade phenomena make correction even more brutal. Again, back to basics. Assuming Brexit risk remains contained (big headline risk assumption) and with the surprisingly hawkish shift from Cunliffe, the BOE’s standing dove, a rate hike in August is all but inevitable GBP should remain in favour.

JPY: Equity momentum has waned this week but increasing JPY outflows to suggest we may only be in the early stages of this move higher in USDJPY. With US yields ticking higher, the fundamental differential argument remains intact.

AUD: Shorts should continue to lead the way, China remains a significant risk despite some favourable commodity forecast based on positive what if scenarios. i.e. what if Trade war abates

MYR: There was a regional sigh of relief after China GDP matched market expectations. While of course taking the data print at face value, the markets are reading this as more or fewer things are not as bad as they could have been. But there is little to get excited about a slowing economy in my views.

With no  “risk on catalysts”, the MYR will take cues from the RMB complex as the local markets will wait for Wednesday  Malaysia CPI data. The data will be of interest given the BNM neutral stance from last week. But the market does think the zero GST effects will likely see inflation drop to the 1.7 %level which will not change markets view that BNM stays on hold for some time. Suggesting the MYR will get little support from interest rate differentials for the foreseeable future.

Also, the bearish sentiment in the oil markets continues to permeate every nook and cranny which should skew negative for MYR sentiment today.

Oil Drops After US May Grant Waivers to Iran Oil Purchases

Oil prices extended early losses on Monday, with U.S. crude dropping below $69 a barrel, after Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin said some crude importers may receive waivers to continue buying supplies from Iran, despite U.S. sanctions on the Middle Eastern country.

“We want people to reduce oil purchases to zero, but in certain cases if people can’t do that overnight, we’ll consider exceptions,” Mnuchin told reporters on Friday while traveling to Mexico, Reuters reported. The comments were under embargo until Monday morning.


West Texas Intermediate graph

Mnuchin told the reporters the Trump administration wants to avoid roiling global oil markets as it seeks to pressure Iran to make concessions on its nuclear program, ballistic missile tests and its role in regional conflicts. President Donald Trump withdrew the United States from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and restored sanctions on Tehran in May.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices fell $2.70, or 3.8 percent, to $68.31 by 11:01 a.m. ET (1501 GMT). WTI has fallen for two weeks in a row, dropping from a 3½-year high above $75 a barrel.

via CNBC

GBP/USD – British pound edges higher, investors eye UK job numbers

The British pound has recorded slight gains in the Monday session. In North American trade, the pair is trading at 1.3266, up 0.24% on the day. On the release front, British Rightmove HPI surprised with a decline of -0.1%, its first decline since December. In the U.S, core retail sales dropped to 0.4%, matching the estimate. Retail sales dropped to 0.5%, edging above 0.4%. On Tuesday, BoE Governor speaks before the Treasury Select Committee, and the U.K will release wage growth and unemployment rolls. In the U.S, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.

The U.S economy is firing on all cylinders and received a vote of confidence from the head of the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, Powell said that the economy is “in a really good place”, pointing to President Trump’s massive tax cut scheme and increased spending as key factors in boosting economic growth. Powell did not address monetary policy and said he was uncertain as to the effects of the current trade disputes which has embroiled the U.S and its trading partners. The Fed will likely press the rate trigger in the second half of the year, but it is an open question as to whether we’ll see one hike over the next six months. The Fed is projecting growth of 2.8% in 2018, compared to 2.3% in 2017. Powell will be in the spotlight next week when he appears for his semi-annual testimony before Congress.

Trade policy is not part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate, but Fed policymakers continue to voice concern about the escalating trade war between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. On Friday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he would have to downgrade his outlook if the tariff battle continues. Kaplan said that U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum imports had dampened capital expenditures plans and further trade tensions could lead to currency fluctuations and geopolitical instability.

As the Brexit deadline creeps ever closer, both sides are making contingency plans for a ‘hard Brexit’, in the event that the parties fail to reach an agreement. On Thursday, the British government released a white paper, which is a blueprint for trade arrangements with the EU when Britain leaves the club in March 2019. The proposal suggests that the UK and the EU will enter into an “association agreement”, which maintains current agreements with regards to goods but not services. This could have a significant negative impact on London’s financial hub, which is already facing the loss of hundreds of financial jobs from London to the continent. Prime Minister May is facing strong opposition from hardliners in her cabinet, who argue that the white paper leaves the EU too much control over British trade policy and could hamper British trade deals. Will the Europeans buy what May is selling? EU policymakers are reviewing the white paper and if it is rejected, investors could get panicky and send the pound lower.

  Trade ,earnings ,teapots and the US dollar

China Q2 GDP growth as expected, though lower than Q1

 

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Sunday (July 15)

  • 19:01 British Rightmove HPI. Actual -0.1%

Monday (July 16)

  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%. Actual 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.3. Actual 22.6
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%

Tuesday (July 17)

  • 4:00 BoE Governor Mark Carney Speaks
  • 4:30 British Average Earnings Index. Estimate 2.5%
  • 4:30 British Claimant Count Change. Estimate 2.3K
  • 4:30 British Unemployment Rate. Estimate 4.2%
  • Tentative – British NIESR GDP Estimate
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.4%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Testifies
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 69
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 34.3B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

GBP/USD for Monday, July 16, 2018

GBP/USD July 13 at 10:25 DST

Open: 1.3235 High: 1.3293 Low: 1.3224 Close: 1.3266

 

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3088 1.3186 1.3263 1.3494 1.3613 1.3712

GBP/USD posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair is showing little movement in North American trade

  • 1.3263 has switched to a support level after gains by GBP/USD on Monday. It is a weak line
  • 1.3494 is the next of resistance
  • Current range: 1.3263 to 1.3494

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3263, 1.3186, 1.3088 and 1.2996
  • Above: 1.3494, 1.3613 and 1.3712

USD/CAD- Canadian dollar subdued as U.S retail sales within expectations

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3145, down 0.07% on the day. On the release front, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases dropped sharply to C$2.18 billion, well short of the estimate of C$7.03 billion. This marked a 5-month low. In the U.S core retail sales dropped to 0.4%, matching the estimate. Retail sales dropped to 0.5%, edging above 0.4%. 

In the U.S, the focus is on consumer spending reports, with both retail sales and core retail sales expected to drop to 0.4%. On the manufacturing front, Empire State Manufacturing Index is forecast to drop to 20.3 points. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair will testify before the Senate Banking Committee and Canada releases Manufacturing Sales.

The U.S economy is firing on all cylinders and received a vote of confidence from the head of the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, Powell said that the economy is “in a really good place”, pointing to President Trump’s massive tax cut scheme and increased spending as key factors in boosting economic growth. Powell did not address monetary policy and said he was uncertain as to the effects of the current trade disputes which has embroiled the U.S and its trading partners. The Fed will likely press the rate trigger in the second half of the year, but it is an open question as to whether we’ll see one hike over the next six months. The Fed is projecting growth of 2.8% in 2018, compared to 2.3% in 2017. Powell will be in the spotlight next week when he appears for his semi-annual testimony before Congress.

Trade policy is not part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate, but Fed policymakers continue to voice concern about the escalating trade war between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. On Friday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he would have to downgrade his outlook if the tariff battle continues. Kaplan said that U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum imports had dampened capital expenditures plans and further trade tensions could lead to currency fluctuations and geopolitcal instability.

  Trade ,earnings ,teapots and the US dollar

China Q2 GDP growth as expected, though lower than Q1

Monday (July 16)

  • 8:30 Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases. Estimate 7.03B. Actual 2.18B
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.3
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%

Tuesday (July 17)

  • 8:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.4%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Testifies
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 69
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 34.3B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, July 16, 2018

USD/CAD, July 16 at 8:35 DST

Open: 1.3157 High: 1.3167 Low: 1.3137 Close: 1.3145

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 1.2970 1.3067 1.3160 1.3292 1.3436

USD/CAD posted small losses in the Asian and  European sessions. The pair has posted slight gains early in the North American session

  • 1.3067 is providing support
  • 1.3160 was tested earlier in resistance. It remains a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3160

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3160, 1.3292, 1.3436 and 1.3530

DAX ticks lower as investors look for cues

The DAX index has ticked lower in the Monday session. Currently, the DAX is at 12,521, down 0.12% on the day. On the release front, there are no major German or eurozone events. In economic news, the eurozone trade surplus slipped to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the estimate of EUR 17.6 billion. This marked the lowest surplus since January 2017.

European equity markets showed little change last week and the DAX continues to trade quietly on Monday. Still, the trading tensions hovering in the air have many investors wondering if this is the calm before the storm. On Tuesday, the Trump administration said it was considering imposing tariffs on some $200 billion in Chinese goods, which would be a significant escalation in the trade war between the two economic giants. China has promised to respond with “firm and forceful measures”, but hasn’t provided any details. With neither side showing any flexibility, the markets could be heading for stormy waters if China retaliates.

Trade policy is not part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate, but Fed policymakers continue to voice concern about the escalating trade war between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. On Friday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he would have to downgrade his outlook if the tariff battle continues. Kaplan said that U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum imports had dampened capital expenditures plans and further trade tensions could lead to currency fluctuations and geopolitical instability.

 

Economic Calendar

Monday (July 16)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 17.6B. Actual 16.9B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

DAX, Monday, July 16 at 7:40 DST

Previous Close: 12,540 Open: 12,534 Low: 12,523 High: 12,605 Close: 12,525

EUR/USD – Euro gains ground despite soft eurozone surplus

EUR/USD has posted gains in the Monday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1707, up 0.18% on the day. In economic news, the eurozone trade surplus slipped to EUR 16.9 billion, short of the estimate of EUR 17.6 billion. This marked the lowest surplus since January 2017. In the U.S, the focus is on consumer spending reports, with both retail sales and core retail sales expected to drop to 0.4%. On the manufacturing front, Empire State Manufacturing Index is forecast to drop to 20.3 points. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair will testify before the Senate Banking Committee.

The U.S economy continues to perform well in 2018, and received a vote of confidence from the head of the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, Powell said that the economy is “in a really good place”, pointing to President Trump’s massive tax cut scheme and increased spending as key factors in boosting economic growth. Powell did not address monetary policy and said he was uncertain as to the effects of the current trade disputes which has embroiled the U.S and its trading partners. The Fed will likely press the rate trigger in the second half of the year, but it is an open question as to whether we’ll see one hike over the next six months. The Fed is projecting growth of 2.8% in 2018, compared to 2.3% in 2017. Powell will be in the spotlight next week when he appears for his semi-annual testimony before Congress.

Trade policy is not part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate, but Fed policymakers continue to voice concern about the escalating trade war between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. On Friday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he would have to downgrade his outlook if the tariff battle continues. Kaplan said that U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum imports had dampened capital expenditures plans and further trade tensions could lead to currency fluctuations and geopolitcal instability.

  Trade ,earnings ,teapots and the US dollar

China Q2 GDP growth as expected, though lower than Q1

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Monday (July 16)

  • 4:04 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 3.25B Actual 3.38B
  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 17.6B. Actual 16.9B
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.3
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%

Tuesday (July 17)

  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.4%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Testifies
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 69
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 34.3B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

EUR/USD for Monday, July 16, 2018

EUR/USD for July 16 at 7:05 DST

Open: 1.1686 High: 1.1722 Low: 1.1676 Close: 1.1721

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1434 1.1553 1.1637 1.1728 1.1829 1.1916

EUR/USD was flat in the Asian session and has edged higher in European trade

  • 1.1637 is providing support
  • 1.1728 is a weak resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.1637, 1.1553, 1.1434 and 1.1312
  • Above: 1.1728, 1.1829 and 1.1910
  • Current range: 1.1637 to 1.1728

China GDP growth slows in Q2

China Q2 GDP growth as expected, though lower than Q1

In this morning’s China data dump, Q2 GDP growth came in as expected but industrial production disappointed. The Chinese economy grew 6.7% y/y in Q2, a slower pace than in Q1 but was in line with economists’ forecasts. Industrial production for May on the other hand failed to match expectations, coming in at +6.0% y/y compared with estimates of 6.5% and a marked slowdown from April’s 6.8% increase.

In other data releases, June retail sales matched forecasts at +9.0% y/y, rising from +8.5% in May while fixed asset investment also equaled forecasts with a 6.0% y/y increase in May.

Source: Oanda MarketPulse

Equity markets fall; currencies stable

In a knee-jerk reaction, markets appeared to focus on the fact that Q2 growth was lower and industrial production missed. Given that the full impact of the first tariff implementations will not be truly felt until Q3, the growth outlook will become more cloudy going forward. AUD/USD slid to a low of 0.7408 though rebounded to near intra-day highs at 0.7434 in late trading.

In the equity space, China shares reacted negatively to the data with the China index sliding 1.72% as the specter of trade wars continues to dog local counters.  The Australia and Singapore indices dropped 0.32% and 0.56% respectively. Japan equity markets were closed for a holiday.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

China says tariffs to have limited impact on inflation

In a press conference post-data, a China National Bureau of Statistics spokesperson Mao Sheng Yong said trade frictions are unlikely to have a significant impact on CPI and may see a subdued rise in prices in H2. On the outlook for the economy, Mao said the Bureau expects no change in China’s slow/steady growth path though acknowledged the trade sector faces challenges in H2.

Trade, earnings, teapots and the US dollar

In an apparent rebuff at the US and Trump’s trade aggression, Chinese Premier Li said, while meeting EU officials Juncker and Tusk, that China and the EU would uphold multilateralism and free trade as they exchanged offers on a bilateral investment treaty.

Euro-zone trade surplus to widen

The major events on the rest of today’s calendar feature Euro-zone trade balance for May, where the surplus is expected to widen to EUR19.7 billion from EUR18.1 billion, according to economists’ forecasts. US data includes retail sales for Jun, seen at +0.6% m/m which is lower than May’s +0.8% but with be the fourth consecutive month of positive month-on-month growth.

You can access the full data calendar on MarketPulse at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

Oanda Market Insights Episode 23

Markets underpricing China risk( OANDA Trading Podcast BFM Kuala Lumpur 89.9)

Stephen Innes, Head of Trading in Asia-Pacific, OANDA, Singapore
Stephen reckons markets are “seriously underpricing economic risk in China”.

Economists suspect the direct impact from the two sets of US tariffs aimed at Beijing could drag China’s GDP down by 0.3 percentage points in the longer run.

Stephen also shares some insights on how China can contain the adverse impact from its ongoing trade war with the US.

We also discuss the market expectation on China’s 2Q GDP that is scheduled to be out today.

BFM Radio Kuala Lumpur 89.9

Trade War and Trump European Trip Boost US Dollar

The US dollar was higher across the board against major pairs on Friday. Trade war concerns rose heading into the weekend and the comments from US President Donald Trump during the week sparked a rally of USD buying. Trump has been outspoken on NATO, trade and the Brexit deal while economic indicators and the US Fed have been supportive of the greenback. The Trump administration has said that it would add 10 percent tariffs on additional $200 billion Chinese goods if the Asian nation retaliates. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlights the week with his semi annual testimonies.

  • US retail sales expected to slow down
  • Fed Chair Powell to testify before congress and senate committees
  • Canadian inflation and retail sales data out on Friday

**Dollar Firmer on Trade Tensions and Fed Comments **

The EUR/USD fell 0.80 in the last five sessions. The single currency is trading at 1.1648 after the EUR lost ground int he first four days of the week, only to mount a half hearted recovery on Friday. The pair started the week trading at 1.1763 and will close at 1.1685. Hawkish Fed member rhetoric and strong inflation indicators in the US did their part on the fundamental side, but with geopolitics playing such an important part the focus of investors was on the ongoing trade war with China. The USD became a safe haven and attracted flows looking to hedge against uncertainty.



The U.S. Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates twice already in 2018 and Fed members have been out in numbers endorsing one or two more additional hikes. The tone of the testimonies from Chair Powell to the congress and senate committees will guide the currency.

European inflation data will be released on Wednesday and is expected to remain steady at 2.0 percent. US retail sales data is expected to drop to a small gain of 0.4 percent but the emphasis will be on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony alongside other member comments during the week. The G20 financial summit will be held in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, July 20 which will be interning as trade spats have escalated to tariff wars but have yet to fully impact global markets.

Yen Loses Safe Haven Appeal

The USD/JPY gained 1.83 percent during the week. The currency pair is trading at 112.47 with the yen one of the biggest losers against the USD in the past five sessions. The Japanese currency shed its safe haven status as a major source of its exports has been targeted in the trade wars (auto) and the US yield curve flattening making the greenback a more attractive destination.



Bank of Canada Hike Can’t Compete with Trade Concerns

The USD/CAD gained 0.65 percent in the last five days. The currency pair is trading at 1.3174 even after the Bank of Canada (BoC) made the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points higher on Wednesday. The official rate is now 1.50 percent, closing the gap with the Fed funds rate alongside some hawkish forecasts of the economy by Governor Poloz.


Canadian dollar weekly graph July 9, 2018

The main headwind for the loonie has been the current geopolitical climate, trade in particular. The Canadian economy is heavily dependant on its relationship with the US and the Trump administration has been pushing for a deep NAFTA renegotiation in exchange to exempt Canada form other tariffs.

The loonie got little support from oil prices with West Texas Intermediate falling since the higher than expected supplies coming online. The weekly inventories posted a large drawdown, but ends of disruption in Libya and a softer stance on Iranian oil by the US is pushing crude prices down. US officials are considering dipping into the oil receiver to prevent a sharp price increase.

Brexit Pressure and Trump Comments Take Down Pound

The GBP/USD lost 0.81 percent in the last week. The currency pair is trading at 1.3178 in the aftermath of a softer Brexit plan drafted by Prime Minister Theresa May was published. The strategy has already resulted in multiple resignations from hard line Brexiteers in May’s government but so far has been short on details. The EU withdrawal bill will be voted next week and then the UK government will sit down with the EU to keep hashing out the Brexit negotiation



UK data will be released that could end up putting the Bank of England (BoE) August rate hike out of reach. Labor data, inflation and retail sales are all due during the week. The Brexit negotiation continues to be a bumpy ride and that is only on the domestic side, EU negotiators might not agree with May’s promises back home regardless of the political cost.

Sunday, July 15
10:00pm CNY GDP q/y
Monday, July 16
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
6:45pm NZD CPI q/q
9:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, July 17
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
4:30am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
10:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Wednesday, July 18
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
8:30am USD Building Permits
10:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
9:30pm AUD Employment Change
Thursday, July 19
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
Friday, July 20
8:30am CAD CPI m/m
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

What sparked the dollar rally ? ( OANDA Trading Podcast on Money FM 89.3)

Stephen Innes Head of Trading Asia tells Michael Switow why the yen is weak, and stocks are rallying.

Money FM Singapore 89.3