USD/CAD- Canadian dollar subdued as U.S retail sales within expectations

The Canadian dollar is almost unchanged in the Monday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3145, down 0.07% on the day. On the release front, Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases dropped sharply to C$2.18 billion, well short of the estimate of C$7.03 billion. This marked a 5-month low. In the U.S core retail sales dropped to 0.4%, matching the estimate. Retail sales dropped to 0.5%, edging above 0.4%. 

In the U.S, the focus is on consumer spending reports, with both retail sales and core retail sales expected to drop to 0.4%. On the manufacturing front, Empire State Manufacturing Index is forecast to drop to 20.3 points. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chair will testify before the Senate Banking Committee and Canada releases Manufacturing Sales.

The U.S economy is firing on all cylinders and received a vote of confidence from the head of the Federal Reserve. On Thursday, Powell said that the economy is “in a really good place”, pointing to President Trump’s massive tax cut scheme and increased spending as key factors in boosting economic growth. Powell did not address monetary policy and said he was uncertain as to the effects of the current trade disputes which has embroiled the U.S and its trading partners. The Fed will likely press the rate trigger in the second half of the year, but it is an open question as to whether we’ll see one hike over the next six months. The Fed is projecting growth of 2.8% in 2018, compared to 2.3% in 2017. Powell will be in the spotlight next week when he appears for his semi-annual testimony before Congress.

Trade policy is not part of the Federal Reserve’s mandate, but Fed policymakers continue to voice concern about the escalating trade war between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. On Friday, Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan said he would have to downgrade his outlook if the tariff battle continues. Kaplan said that U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum imports had dampened capital expenditures plans and further trade tensions could lead to currency fluctuations and geopolitcal instability.

  Trade ,earnings ,teapots and the US dollar

China Q2 GDP growth as expected, though lower than Q1

Monday (July 16)

  • 8:30 Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases. Estimate 7.03B. Actual 2.18B
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 20.3
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.4%

Tuesday (July 17)

  • 8:30 Canadian Manufacturing Sales
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.4%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Federal Reserve Jerome Powell Testifies
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 69
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 34.3B

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Monday, July 16, 2018

USD/CAD, July 16 at 8:35 DST

Open: 1.3157 High: 1.3167 Low: 1.3137 Close: 1.3145

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 1.2970 1.3067 1.3160 1.3292 1.3436

USD/CAD posted small losses in the Asian and  European sessions. The pair has posted slight gains early in the North American session

  • 1.3067 is providing support
  • 1.3160 was tested earlier in resistance. It remains a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3160

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3160, 1.3292, 1.3436 and 1.3530

Trade War and Trump European Trip Boost US Dollar

The US dollar was higher across the board against major pairs on Friday. Trade war concerns rose heading into the weekend and the comments from US President Donald Trump during the week sparked a rally of USD buying. Trump has been outspoken on NATO, trade and the Brexit deal while economic indicators and the US Fed have been supportive of the greenback. The Trump administration has said that it would add 10 percent tariffs on additional $200 billion Chinese goods if the Asian nation retaliates. U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlights the week with his semi annual testimonies.

  • US retail sales expected to slow down
  • Fed Chair Powell to testify before congress and senate committees
  • Canadian inflation and retail sales data out on Friday

**Dollar Firmer on Trade Tensions and Fed Comments **

The EUR/USD fell 0.80 in the last five sessions. The single currency is trading at 1.1648 after the EUR lost ground int he first four days of the week, only to mount a half hearted recovery on Friday. The pair started the week trading at 1.1763 and will close at 1.1685. Hawkish Fed member rhetoric and strong inflation indicators in the US did their part on the fundamental side, but with geopolitics playing such an important part the focus of investors was on the ongoing trade war with China. The USD became a safe haven and attracted flows looking to hedge against uncertainty.



The U.S. Federal Reserve has lifted interest rates twice already in 2018 and Fed members have been out in numbers endorsing one or two more additional hikes. The tone of the testimonies from Chair Powell to the congress and senate committees will guide the currency.

European inflation data will be released on Wednesday and is expected to remain steady at 2.0 percent. US retail sales data is expected to drop to a small gain of 0.4 percent but the emphasis will be on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony alongside other member comments during the week. The G20 financial summit will be held in Buenos Aires starting on Friday, July 20 which will be interning as trade spats have escalated to tariff wars but have yet to fully impact global markets.

Yen Loses Safe Haven Appeal

The USD/JPY gained 1.83 percent during the week. The currency pair is trading at 112.47 with the yen one of the biggest losers against the USD in the past five sessions. The Japanese currency shed its safe haven status as a major source of its exports has been targeted in the trade wars (auto) and the US yield curve flattening making the greenback a more attractive destination.



Bank of Canada Hike Can’t Compete with Trade Concerns

The USD/CAD gained 0.65 percent in the last five days. The currency pair is trading at 1.3174 even after the Bank of Canada (BoC) made the benchmark interest rate 25 basis points higher on Wednesday. The official rate is now 1.50 percent, closing the gap with the Fed funds rate alongside some hawkish forecasts of the economy by Governor Poloz.


Canadian dollar weekly graph July 9, 2018

The main headwind for the loonie has been the current geopolitical climate, trade in particular. The Canadian economy is heavily dependant on its relationship with the US and the Trump administration has been pushing for a deep NAFTA renegotiation in exchange to exempt Canada form other tariffs.

The loonie got little support from oil prices with West Texas Intermediate falling since the higher than expected supplies coming online. The weekly inventories posted a large drawdown, but ends of disruption in Libya and a softer stance on Iranian oil by the US is pushing crude prices down. US officials are considering dipping into the oil receiver to prevent a sharp price increase.

Brexit Pressure and Trump Comments Take Down Pound

The GBP/USD lost 0.81 percent in the last week. The currency pair is trading at 1.3178 in the aftermath of a softer Brexit plan drafted by Prime Minister Theresa May was published. The strategy has already resulted in multiple resignations from hard line Brexiteers in May’s government but so far has been short on details. The EU withdrawal bill will be voted next week and then the UK government will sit down with the EU to keep hashing out the Brexit negotiation



UK data will be released that could end up putting the Bank of England (BoE) August rate hike out of reach. Labor data, inflation and retail sales are all due during the week. The Brexit negotiation continues to be a bumpy ride and that is only on the domestic side, EU negotiators might not agree with May’s promises back home regardless of the political cost.

Sunday, July 15
10:00pm CNY GDP q/y
Monday, July 16
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
USD Retail Sales m/m
6:45pm NZD CPI q/q
9:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday, July 17
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
4:30am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
10:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
Wednesday, July 18
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
8:30am USD Building Permits
10:00am USD Fed Chair Powell Testifies
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
9:30pm AUD Employment Change
Thursday, July 19
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
Friday, July 20
8:30am CAD CPI m/m
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m

What sparked the dollar rally ? ( OANDA Trading Podcast on Money FM 89.3)

Stephen Innes Head of Trading Asia tells Michael Switow why the yen is weak, and stocks are rallying.

Money FM Singapore 89.3

 

 

USD/CAD – Canadian dollar halts slide, U.S consumer inflation remains soft

The Canadian dollar has posted gains in the Thursday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3152, down 0.43% on the day. In the U.S, the focus is on inflation reports. CPI edged down to 0.1%, shy of the forecast of 0.2%. Core CPI remained steady at 0.2%, matching the forecast. Unemployment claims dropped to 214 thousand, easily beating the estimate of 226 thousand. In Canada, the New Housing Price Index remained pegged at 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.1%. The indicator has not posted a gain since November. On Friday, the U.S releases the UoM Consumer Sentiment report.

The Bank of Canada has been hinting for weeks that a rate hike was coming, and made good on this promise on Wednesday. The Bank raised rates by a quarter-point, bringing the benchmark rate to 1.50%. This is the highest level since December 2008. The Bank followed up with a hawkish rate statement, as policymakers noted that the economy continues to operate close to capacity. The BoC has upwardly revised its growth forecast for Q2 from 2.5% to 2.8%, and projected inflation to climb to 2.5%, before falling to 2% in the second half of 2019. As for the escalating trade war, the BoC said that U.S tariffs on steel and aluminum and retaliatory tariffs by Canada would lower economic growth. However, the effect of the tariffs would be modest, due to strong global demand and high commodity prices. Despite the rate hike and hawkish comments from the BoC, the Canadian dollar lost ground against the greenback on Wednesday.

Investors continue to keep a close eye on the trade war being waged by the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. After the U.S and China imposed tariffs on each other of some $30 billion, the Trump administration has raised the ante, threatening to hit China with further tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China cannot retaliate in kind, since it does not import that amount of goods from the U.S. Still, the Chinese can take steps which will make it more difficult for U.S companies to do business in China. The U.S dollar has benefited from the recent trade battles, and if this trend continues, the euro could be facing some substantial headwinds.

  Equities shrug off trade tariff tensions

  US Inflation Eyed as Markets Pare Losses

Thursday (July 12)

  • 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.0%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K. Actual 214K
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate 55B
  • 13:01 US 30-year Bond Auction
  • 14:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -92.3B

Friday (July 13)

  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 98.1

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

 

USD/CAD for Thursday, July 12, 2018

USD/CAD, July 12 at 8:40 DST

Open: 1.3211 High: 1.3219 Low: 1.3150 Close: 1.3152

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 1.2970 1.3067 1.3160 1.3292 1.3436

USD/CAD ticked lower in the Asian and has posted slight losses in European trade. The pair continues to head lower in North American trade

  • 1.3067 is providing support
  • 1.3160 has switched to a resistance role following losses by USD/CAD on Thursday. It is a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3160

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3160, 1.3292, 1.3436 and 1.3530

Equities shrug off trade tariff tensions

Is the negotiating table being dusted off?

Was it a storm in teacup? Equity markets across Asia shrugged off yesterday’s post-tariff announcement weakness and are trading in the black through the Asian session. Nikkei225 rose 0.95%, Australian stocks rose 0.68% and even China shares managed gains of 2.30%, recouping all of yesterday’s losses. What has caused this shift in sentiment? Well, China’s Vice Minister of Commerce, Wang Shouwen, urged his US counterparts to resolve the current conflict with a new round of bilateral negotiations. Early murmurings from the US administration could imply that they are amenable to a resumption of talks at a high level, Bloomberg reports.

A tenuous and unstable state of affairs

Currencies lag behind

Currency pairs have halted the risk-off trend started yesterday but have yet to reverse yesterday’s moves to any degree. USD/CNH is posting its first down day in three, but so far has only managed a slide of 0.59% while AUD/USD has recovered 0.28% on the day.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

US inflation data in the headlights

Today’s data calendar is a mixed bag, with German CPI for June kicking off the European session followed by Euro-zone industrial production for May. Inflation is seen holding steady with the increase expected to be the same as May, up 0.1% m/m and up 2.1% y/y. Factory output is expected to rebound from April’s slump, seen rising 1.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y.

US June consumer prices are seen rising 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y while core prices, excluding food and energy are forecast to gain 0.2% m/m and 2.9% y/y. Given that the Fed has said recently that it will not overreact if prices stray above their medium target in the near term, it would require a number significantly different from estimate to provoke a meaningful market reaction.

You can access the full data calendar on MarketPulse at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

Bank of Canada hikes rates with hawkish outlook

Canadian Dollar Lower Despite BoC Hike and Hawkish Comments

The Bank of Canada raised interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, and said further gradual rate hikes will be warranted, but warned mounting trade tensions will have a larger impact on investment and exports than previously thought.

The central bank said the effect of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by Canada and the United States will cause some difficult adjustments for industries and workers, but the impact of the tariffs on growth and inflation is expected to be modest.


usdcad Canadian dollar graph, July 11, 2018

The bank tweaked its standard language on future rate hikes, saying that while it will take a gradual approach guided by data, it is monitoring the economy’s adjustment to higher rates, the evolution of capacity and wage pressures as well as “the response of companies and consumers to trade actions.”

Pointing to a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy, the bank boosted its estimate of Canadian second-quarter growth to 2.8 percent from 2.5 percent forecast in April, but said growth will slow to 1.5 percent in the third quarter.

The bank said inflation is expected to pick up to about 2.5 percent before settling back to 2 percent by the second half of 2019, while wage growth is running at about 2.3 percent, “slower than would be expected in a labor market with no slack.”

via CNBC

USD/CAD – Canadian dollar dips, BoC rate decision looms

The Canadian dollar has posted slight losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3154, up 0.31% on the day. On the release front, In the U.S, the focus is on inflation reports, with PPI and Core PPI both expected to soften to 0.2%. The Bank of Canada will set the benchmark rate and release a rate statement. On Thursday, Canada publishes New Housing Price Index. The US will release CPI and Final CPI as well as unemployment claims.

The spotlight is on the Bank of Canada, which holds its monthly rate meeting on Wednesday. The markets are expecting that Bank policymakers will raise rates by a quarter-point to 1.50%, a level not seen since December 2008. Earlier this month, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz said that the July rate decision would be based on economic data, and Friday’s strong employment data will be added ammunition in favor of raising rates at the upcoming meeting. The economy created 31.8 thousand jobs in June, well above the estimate of 22.3 thousand. Wage growth also looked strong, as hourly earnings gained 3.5% in June on an annualized basis. The Canadian economy is forecast to gain 2% this year, after a strong performance of 3% in 2017. Inflation has improved and is close to the BoC target of 2 percent. However, bank policymakers remained concerned about escalating trade tensions, which includes a tariff spat between the U.S and Canada.

Investors remain uneasy about the tariff battle being waged between the U.S and its major trading partners, particularly China. After the U.S and China imposed tariffs on each other of some $30 billion, the Trump administration has raised the ante, threatening to hit China with further tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China cannot retaliate in kind, since it does not import that amount of goods from the U.S. Still, the Chinese can take steps which will make it more difficult for U.S companies to do business in China. The U.S dollar has benefited from the recent trade battles, and if this trend continues, the Canadian dollar could be facing some substantial headwinds.

  Investors turn risk-averse on tariff war escalation

  ( Update 1) When the going gets tough, the tough get going

  Bank of Canada Expected to Hike on Wednesday

Wednesday (July 11)

  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 BoC Monetary Policy Report
  • 10:00 BoC Rate Statement
  • 10:00 BoC Overnight Rate. Estimate 1.50% 
  • 10:00 US Final Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories
  • 11:15 BoC Press Conference
  • 12:30 US FOMC Member Rafael Bostic Speaks
  • 13:01 US 10-year Bond Auction
  • 16:30 US FOMC Member John Williams Speaks

Thursday (July 12)

  • 8:30 Canadian NHPI. Estimate 0.1%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 226K

*All release times are DST

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Wednesday, July 11, 2018

USD/CAD, July 11 at 7:55 DST

Open: 1.3114 High: 1.3174 Low: 1.3108 Close: 1.3154

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2831 1.2970 1.3067 1.3160 1.3292 1.3436

USD/CAD has posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions

  • 1.3067 is providing support
  • 1.3160 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line
  • Current range: 1.3067 to 1.3160

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3067, 1.2970 and 1.2831
  • Above: 1.3160, 1.3292, 1.3436 and 1.3530

Investors turn risk-averse on tariff war escalation

US announces list of next tariff targets

The US close was looking hunky dory, with equity markets aiming for a higher close as there appeared to be a lull in trade war rhetoric, once the first salvos had been fired last weekend. Then BOOM! Headlines that the US was set to announce the list of the next $200 billion worth of Chinese goods targeted for a 10% tariff hit the wires. Once the contents of the list were known, the sour tone intensified as a general risk-averse mood permeated through markets during the Asian session.

News reports say the list runs to more than 200 pages and refers to goods from TV components, food products, tobacco, raw materials and even badger hair! The tariffs are scheduled to be implemented after public consultations end on August 30. Bloomberg also notes that China only imports about $136 billion worth of US goods, so it could be interesting to see how countermeasures match up. The only reaction from China so far has been from the Ministry of Commerce which stated the latest round of tariffs interferes with the globalization of the world economy and harms the WTO trade order. It reiterated that cooperation is the only correct choice for US-China relations, though vowed to roll out a response.

When the going gets tough, the tough get going

Equities and yuan suffer

In reaction, the Nikkei225 fell up to 1.86% while China shares slumped as much as 2.76%, as investors once again tried to gauge the true impact on the Chinese economy and companies. In the currency space, the yen was bid, rising 0.69% versus the AUD, 0.07% versus the EUR and 0.05% against the pound. It did, however fail to gain ground against the dollar. The offshore yuan was under pressure the whole session, falling as much as 0.63% versus the dollar to hit 6.69190.

NOTE: Last time the offshore yuan weakened through 6.70, on July 3, the PBOC stepped up its comments on the tools it has to adjust policy

Aussie data ignored

Australian data releases were generally positive. The Westpac consumer confidence index jumped 3.9% in July, home loans rebounded in May, signaling the first growth in six months while home loans for investment purposes fell a less-than-expected 0.1%. The good data couldn’t help the local dollar which was caught up in the broader risk-averse trade. AUD/USD is down 0.72% at 0.7405 having failed to penetrate the 0.75 handle in the previous two sessions.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

Bank of Canada decision on the radar

The highlight of today’s data calendar will likely be the Bank of Canada rate decision where market consensus is that the central bank will hike rates for the first time in four meetings as it seeks to close the rate gap with the Fed. Expectations are for a 25bps increase to 1.50%. The press conference will be monitored for hints on future guidance on rate trajectory. USD/CAD is currently at 1.31366.

Bank of Canada Expected to Hike on Wednesday

Other data bites include speeches from ECB’s Draghi, Praet and Mersch, US producer prices for June and wholesale inventories for May. Speeches continue later in the day with BOE’s Carney and Fed’s Bostic and Williams all on tap.

You can access the full data calendar on MarketPulse at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

Oanda Live FX Market Analysis

Bank of Canada Expected to Hike on Wednesday

The US dollar is mixed against majors on Tuesday. The JPY has lost as risk appetite is back in vogue with investors and the GBP has risen after the market digested the resignations of pro-Brexit members of Theresa May’s government. The Bank of Canada (BoC) will publish its rate statement on Wednesday, July 11 at 10:00 am EDT. The market has priced in a 96 percent chance of an interest rate hike. BoC Governor Stephen Poloz will host a press conference where he could offer further insight into the decision or hedge if market reaction is too extreme in his view.

  • Bank of Canada (BoC) expected to hike rate by 25 basis points
  • US Weekly crude inventories forecasted to drop after API drawdown of 6.8M barrels
  • Bank of England (BoE) Governor Carney to speak in Boston

Loonie Awaiting Bank of Canada Decision
The USD/CAD gained 0.05 percent on Tuesday. The currency pair is trading at 1.3114 ahead of the central bank meeting. Monthly Canadian GDP data at the end of June surprised to the upside and with a positive business outlook added to a strong jobs report the Canadian central bank will be looking to close the gap with the U.S. Federal Reserve funds rate. Fed members have signalled that more rate lifts are coming and two have already been priced in. The BoC is in no hurry to hike, but there is pressure to act later in the second half of the year if it decides to hold in July.


usdcad Canadian dollar graph, July 10, 2018

While the lift in interest rates will not be a surprise, there is more anticipation for what BoC Governor Stephen Poloz has to say. Hawkish comments from BoC Governor Stephen Poloz earlier in the month taken into consideration for the meeting, although the market is forecasts more dovish remarks given the uncertain global trade scenario. If Poloz maintains a neutral to hawkish there could be a sharp movement in the currency.

Commitment of Trades (CoT) data out of the CFTC shows large investors are bearish on the currency, which could create a short squeeze scenario all depending on what Poloz ends up communicating to the market.

The Canadian economy had a solid start to 2017, but the pace kept slowing down as the Trump administration attacks on trade were gaining steam. The uncertainty about trade made the start of 2018 a difficult one for the loonie and until recently the worst performer against the USD from major currencies.

Elections in Mexico and the upcoming midterms in the US make a NAFTA renegotiation less likely this year, which minimizes but does not take out of the equation an end of the trade deal. Fundamental indicators in Canada have improved giving the central bank some room to close the gap between the US and Canadian interest rates.

Yen on the Back Foot as Risk Appetite Returns

The USD/JPY lost 0.38 percent in the last 24 hours. The currency pair is trading at 111.27 a six month high for the USD against the JPY. The yen is a preferred safe haven during times of uncertainty, but as investors seek returns they quickly sell the Asian currency. Trade war fears have waned this week and emerging markets have been the biggest winners at the expense of the JPY.



Pound Rises as PM May Survives Leadership Challenge

The GBP/USD gained 0.18 percent on Tuesday. Cable is trading at 1.3279 on the midst of Theresa May fighting for a soft Brexit and her job. On Friday it all seemed to have worked out with little opposition for her plans of an orderly divorce with the EU that allowed the UK to have access to the single market. Hard Brexit backing members of the cabinet started resigning over the weekend. The pound started to drop as Boris Johnson resigned and concerns rose of a confidence vote against PM May. The fact that May has survived a leadership challenge and some encouraging comments out of Brussels have boosted the currency.



The Conservative party remains divided, but the Eurosceptics do not have enough fire power to topple May so for now a soft Brexit is the only viable strategy. May has the support from Michael Gove, but if that were to change it could mean her ouster, with Gove a likely replacement.

Market events to watch this week:

Wednesday, July 11
10:00am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
10:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
10:00am CAD Overnight Rate
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
11:15am CAD BOC Press Conference
11:35am GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks
Thursday, July 12
7:30am EUR ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts
8:30am USD CPI m/m
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m

*All times EDT
For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar

Bank of Canada Rate Hike OANDA Market Beat Podcast

OANDA Senior Market Analyst Alfonso Esparza reviews the major upcoming market news, macro analysis and economic indicator releases that will impact currencies, stocks other asset classes.

Subscription available on iTunes https://goo.gl/TZEWRW and GooglePlay https://goo.gl/cRBk39. Tune in every Tuesday and don’t miss a beat as we cover the hottest trends impacting the markets in the week ahead. Trading is high risk. Losses can exceed investment.

Trade Uncertainty Hits Dollar Confidence

The US dollar fell against major pairs on Friday despite a strong June NFP report.

The impending start of tariffs against Chinese goods and the retaliation from the Asian nation on US exports put downward pressure on the dollar.

The US economy added 213,000 jobs and wages rose 0.2 percent but it is the threat of trade war escalation that put pressure on the US currency.

The Canadian dollar advanced against its southern neighbour ahead of the Bank of Canada (BoC) rate statement on Wednesday. The BoC could hike rates to keep up with American interest rates.

The weekend brought a major showdown in England as Theresa May presented a soft Brexit strategy to her party that prompted some of the more hardline Brexiteers to quit, jeopardizing May’s position as leader of the party.

– UK Manufacturing expected to bounce back
– Bank of Canada (BoC) to hike interest rate to 1.50%
– US inflation to keep rising at 0.2% m/m