bear-market-risk-4624361

Monday October 22: Five things the markets are talking about

Global equities remain better supported this Monday morning after Chinese stocks surged overnight on senior officials verbal intervention.

The ‘mighty’ U.S dollar has eased a tad along with treasuries, while Italian bonds have rallied.

The EUR had found some early support on the back of a ratings decision by Moody’s Investors Service late last Friday who removed the immediate threat of a downgrade to ‘junk.’ The market now awaits on S&P’s review this Friday.

Nevertheless, risks remain, from tension surrounding the Khashoggi murder and the ongoing Sino-U.S trade showdown to Italian budget fears and President Trump’s unpredictability ahead of U.S midterm elections.

On tap for this week, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is expected to increase its policy rate by +25 bps to +1.75% on Wednesday (Oct 24) despite last Friday’s disappointing inflation and retail sales readings.

Elsewhere, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave policy unchanged, but questions regarding Italy and its budget issues are expected to be front and center.

In Scandinavia, Sweden’s Riksbank and Norway’s Norges bank take center stage mid-week.

Stateside, earnings season gathers pace with notable highlights including Amazon, Alphabet, Intel, Verizon, Microsoft, Twitter, McDonald’s, and Caterpillar.

1. Stocks in the black

Japan’s Nikkei edged higher, supported by a rally in Chinese stocks on the promise of additional stimulus measures, triggering buying in firms exposed to China. The Nikkei share average rallied +0.37%, moving off a six-week low hit during last Friday’s session. The index is now down around -7.5% since hitting a 27-year high on Oct. 2. The broader Topix edged +0.15% higher.

Down-under, Aussie stocks ended lower on Monday, as political concerns rattled investors after the governing coalition looks set to lose its one-seat majority in parliament following a weekend by-election. The S&P/ASX 200 index closed -0.6% lower. In S. Korea, the Kospi stock index climbed on Monday supported by a strong Chinese market. The index rallied +0.5%.

In China, stocks surged overnight in the wake of coordinated statements of support by senior regulators, and as China prepares to overhaul its income tax law for individuals. The benchmark Shanghai Composite index was +4.2% higher, while the blue-chip CSI300 index jumped +4.4%.

The gains extended to Hong Kong, where the Hang Seng index added +2.3% and the China Enterprises Index ended +2.6% higher.

In Europe, indices trade higher across the board. Italy’s FTSE MIB outperforms after Moody’s cut the countries rating to the lowest investment grade, but put the outlook as stable, helping BTP futures rally.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘black’ (+0.1%).

Indices: Stoxx600 +0.22% at 362.02, FTSE +0.26% at 7,066.00, DAX +0.52% at 11,614.01, CAC-40 +0.24% at 5,096.82, IBEX-35 +0.73% at 8,957.30, FTSE MIB +0.66% at 19,205.50, SMI +0.30% at 8,892.50, S&P 500 Futures +0.18%

bco_usd_2018-10-21_2d_m-3092119

2. Brent oil back above $80 as Iran sanctions loom

Brent crude oil prices remain better bid as markets are expected to tighten once U.S sanctions against Iran’s crude exports come into effect in November.

Brent crude oil futures are at +$80.26 a barrel, up +48c, or +0.6%, above Friday’s close. U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures are at +$69.60 a barrel, up +48c, or +0.7%.

Note: The U.S sanctions on Iran, the third-largest producer in OPEC, are set to start on Nov. 4.

OPEC agreed in June to boost supply to make up for the expected shortfall in Iranian exports, however, recent data suggests that OPEC is struggling to add barrels as an increase in Saudi supply was offset by declines elsewhere.

Nevertheless, relief may come from the U.S, where offshore drillers added four oilrigs in the week to Oct. 19, bringing the total count to 873, according to Baker Hughes data on Friday. After months of stagnation, U.S crude production is expected to rise.

However, undermining sentiment is weaker China growth data and the ongoing Sino-U.S trade dispute. The full impact of the trade war is expected to hit markets early next year and provide a considerable drag on oil demand.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have edged higher overnight towards their three-month peak hit last week, as the ‘big’ dollar eased and worries over rising political tensions slowing global economic growth lent support to the ‘yellow’ metal. Spot gold is up +0.1% at +$1,226.52 an ounce, while U.S. gold futures are also up +0.1% at +$1,229.50 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-21_2d_m-66465413. Italian yields drops by most in 4-months on Moody’s decision

Italian sovereign yields dropped across the curve after ratings agency Moody’s kept the country’s sovereign ratings outlook ‘stable’ while delivering an expected downgrade last week. The market was worried that the outlook would be ‘negative.’

Note: S&P’s review is expected this Friday (Oct 26). It now rates the country two notches above junk at BBB.

Italy’s five-year BTP yield dropped -36 bps to a two-week low of +2.63%, while the benchmark 10-year yield was -26.5 bps lower at +3.39%, its biggest daily drop in four-months. The BTP/Bund 10-year yield spread tightened to +284 bps.

Elsewhere, the yield on the U.S 10-year note rose +1 bps to +3.20%, while Germany’s 10-year Bund yield increased + 2bps to +0.48%. In the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield climbed +1 bps to +1.588%.

gbp_usd_2018-10-21_2d_m-2022967

4. Dollar quiet across the board

The EUR/USD is a tad lower at €1.1515 after testing a high of €1.1550 overnight on the back of a relief rally in the 10-year BTP/Bund spread. Nevertheless, event risk persists ahead of the deadline for Italy to respond to the E.U Commission’s initial objections over the 2019 budget plan.

Expect Thursday’s ECB meeting to be closely watched, especially Draghi’s press conference, where the market is looking for more color on how the ECB would reinvest maturing QE proceeds post December this year.

GBP/USD is -0.3% lower at £1.3030 as Brexit talks again reached an impasse. However, PM Theresa May believes that +95% of the Brexit withdrawal deal is “now settled.” It’s believed that the PM is facing a rebellion by more than 40 Tory MP’s if she does not back down to fresh demands from Brexiteers’

Note: 48 votes are necessary for a leadership challenge

eur_usd_2018-10-21_2d_m-7876908

5. Italy says it’s ready to discuss budget with E.U authorities

The Italian government is ready to sit and discuss its budget targets with E.U, Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said this morning, restating that the “populist” coalition had no plan to leave the euro.

Italy has sent a letter to the commission explaining its reasons for sticking to the +2.4% goal, and that the government was ready to “sit at the table”.

Note: Italy wants to hike its budget deficit to +2.4% from this year’s +1.8%. Last week, the E.U Commission labeled Italy’s 2019 draft budget an “unprecedented breach of EU fiscal rules.”

fxhm_all_20181022-9002301

bear-market-risk-300x300-3851973

canadian-dollar-coins-3

Canadian inflation slowed significantly last month as temporary factors that lifted the cost of gas and air travel dissipated.

Canada’s CPI climbed +2.2% y/y, following a +2.8% increase in August and a +3% climb in July.

The market was looking for a solid +2.7% gain in September.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI declined -0.4%.

Digging deeper, the Bank of Canada (BoC) three preferred measures supporting inflation also weakened – core-inflation prices rose in a range from +1.9% to +2.1% for an average of +2.0%, down from the previous month’s +2.1% average.

Despite this morning miss, the headline annual inflation rate in Canada has come in +2%+ for eight consecutive month.

Canada retail sales miss

Canadian retail sales fell unexpectedly in August, led mostly by gas stations receipts declines.

Canada retail sales fell -0.1% in August, m/m, to a seasonally adjusted +C$50.76B. The market was looking for a +0.3% rise.

In volume terms, retail sales declined by a steeper -0.3% in August.

The previous month’s data were revised downward, and indicated receipts rose +0.2% vs. +0.3% estimate.

On the release, the CAD came under immense, trading at C$1.3030 before the headlines to C$1.3116.

Next up, the BoC monetary policy announcement is next Wednesday (Oct 24). Despite a weaker retail sales and inflation, the market is currently pricing in another +25 bps hike by Governor Poloz.

usd_cad_2018-10-18_2d_m-5731393

canadian-dollar-loonie-coins-300x200-6137775

arms-trade-business-concept-9

Tuesday October 16: Five things the markets are talking about

The ‘big’ dollar came under pressure yesterday and is finding it difficult to gain much traction this morning as investors taking profit on U.S assets outweighs concerns about Italy, Brexit and a Sino-U.S trade war. Furthermore, twin U.S deficits and prospects of a halt in Fed’s rate hike cycle are also weighing on the dollar.

Elsewhere, it has been mixed picture across regional stock markets overnight as investors await the next wave of corporate earnings and further developments across the aforementioned geopolitical issues.

Note: Any hint of a slowdown or stronger growth could affect the pace of Fed’s rate hikes.

Oil prices continue to fluctuate within striking distance of recent highs amid tensions between Saudi Arabia and the U.S over the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi, a prominent journalist with U.S citizenship, while the precious ‘yellow’ metal holds its gains.

On tap: FOMC minutes are due Wednesday (02:00 pm EDT), with investors focused on projections for further interest rate rises.

1. Stocks mixed results

In Japan, the Nikkei rebounded overnight, supported by short covering in index heavyweights (automakers and SoftBank), but retailers came under pressure on worries about domestic personal consumption and slowing demand from China. The Nikkei share average closed +1.3% higher, after tumbling -1.8% yesterday. The broader Topix rallied +0.7%.

Down-under, Aussie shares rebounded overnight, as mining and financials bounced back from Monday’s -1% drop and six-month low, but rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the West and weaker PPI data in China capped broader market gains. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose +0.6%. In S. Korea, the Kospi stock index closed flat on Tuesday as global uncertainties capped gains during the day.

In China, stocks ended lower overnight, after data showed factory-gate inflation had cooled for a third consecutive month in September amid lean domestic demand. The blue-chip CSI300 index ended -0.8% weaker, while the Shanghai Composite Index also closed -0.8% lower. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng was up +0.1%.

Note: Chinese inflation was boosted by food while prices were mostly subdued elsewhere. China Sept CPI y/y came in as expected at +2.5% vs. +2.5%e (a seven-month high): PPI y/y was +3.6% vs. +3.5%e.

In Europe, regional bourses trade mostly higher across the board with the Italian FTSE MIB outperforming following the submission of its draft budget to the E.C, while the U.K’s FTSE underperforms on Brexit uncertainty.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘black’ (+0.3%).

Indices: Stoxx600 +0.4% at 361, FTSE -0.2% at 7012, DAX +0.2% at 11638, CAC-40 +0.1% at 5099, IBEX-35 +0.9% at 9004, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 19500, SMI +0.3% at 8678, S&P 500 Futures +0.3%

bco_usd_2018-10-15_2d_m-8707136

2. Oil dips on expectations of higher U.S stocks, gold unchanged

Oil prices have eased a tad amid expectations of an increase in U.S crude inventories, but signs of a fall in Iranian oil exports for October are limiting losses.

Brent crude for December delivery has fallen -6c, or -0.07%, to +$80.72 per barrel, while U.S West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for November delivery is down -14c at +$71.64 a barrel.

U.S crude stockpiles are forecasted to have risen last week for the fourth consecutive week, by about +1.1M barrels, ahead of reports from the API (data is due at 4:30 pm today) and the U.S DoE’s EIA (will be released at 10:30 am EDT tomorrow).

In the first two weeks of October, Iran has exported +1.33M bpd of crude to countries including India, China and Turkey. That is down from +1.6M bpd during the same period in September.

Note: October exports are a sharp drop from the +2.5M bpd in April before President Trump withdrew from a multilateral nuclear deal with Iran. In May Trump ordered the re-imposition of economic sanctions on the country. The sanctions will come into force on Nov. 4.

Also supporting prices is today’s comments from OPEC’s Secretary General Barkindo who said, “global spare oil capacity was shrinking,” adding “producers and companies should increase their production capacities and invest more to meet current demand.”

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices are holding steady near yesterday’s three-month high as a number of risk-averse investors seek refuge in the metal amid rising political tensions and economic uncertainty.

Spot gold was little changed at +$1,226.71 an ounce – it touched +$1,233.26 yesterday, its highest print since mid July, as global equities slid on rising tensions between the Saudi’s and the West. U.S gold futures are flat at +$1,230.40 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-15_2d_m-1062624

3. German Bund yields edge higher

A cautious, risk-on mood currently prevails in eurozone sovereign bond markets so far this morning, with yields of German Bunds and of other core eurozone bonds up, and Italian bond yields down.

This would suggest that market risk sentiment may be improving following last week’s sudden correction, but the balance remains a tad precarious in the current political environment. German 10-year Bund yield has backed up +1.4 bps to +0.51%.

Note: The +0.50% level in Bund yields remains pivotal and with more debt product coming to market today (Germany offers +€4B in the September 2020-dated Schatz) should be able to back up sovereign yields a tad more.

Elsewhere, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has backed up +1 bps to +3.17%, the highest in a week. In the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has decreased -1 bps to +1.603%, the lowest in almost two-weeks, while in Italy, the 10-year BTP yield has declined -2 bps to +3.522%.

eur_usd_2018-10-15_2d_m-1052138

4. G7 currency pairs are little changed

Major currencies (€, £, ¥ and C$) are relatively unchanged ahead of the U.S open.

Dealers and investors have little technical or fundamental data to work with at current levels. In fact, the market is looking for guidance, which may come in the shape of the U.S Treasury forex report, which is likely to be released this week and where the U.S could name China a currency manipulator.

If the U.S were to name China a currency manipulator it would further pressure China on trade and add to the Sino-U.S trade tensions.

EUR/USD is flat at €1.1579 and other major currency pairs are not moving by much either. GBP/USD is up slightly at £1.3163 as leaders struck a conciliatory tone a day after Brexit negotiations broke down and USD/JPY is up +0.3% at ¥112.07

Elsewhere, the performance of several petro-forex (NOK, CAD, RUB) has been held back due to various unique factors that have not translated into a growth boost for these currencies. The ruble has been driven by U.S sanctions, and the Canadian dollar has been held back by NAFTA re-negotiations.

TRY (-0.20% at $5.7865) has retreated after seven days of gains after the country released U.S pastor Andrew Brunson on Friday.

gbp_usd_2018-10-15_2d_m-8320116

5. U.K wage growth fastest in a decade

U.K data this morning showed that wage growth quickened over the summer at the fastest pace in almost a decade, adding to signs of inflationary pressure.

The ONS said that average weekly earnings in Britain, ex-bonuses, grew +3.1% in the three-months through August.

The figures will likely reinforce market expectations that the BoE remains on course tighten monetary policy over the next 24-months to keep overall price-growth in check, assuming the U.K.’s exit from the E.U goes well.

Other data showed that U.K unemployment in the three-months through August was unchanged on the previous three-months at +4%, while the number of people in work, +32.4M, remained close to its record high.

Note: The BoE hiked interest rate in August and signalled that they expect to do so again two or more times over the next couple of years to bring inflation back to their +2% annual goal.

A weaker pound since the Brexit referendum has to push up the price of imports, squeezing U.K citizens’ purchasing power.

fxhm_all_20181016-5067910

dollar-trade-war-bullets-300x226-9138222

interest-rate-on-ice-5

Monday October 15: Five things the markets are talking about

Following a weekend of warnings on global economic fragility from G10 finance leaders at an IMF meeting in Bali, has global equities starting this new week on the back foot, with regional bourses in Asia and Europe seeing red, while U.S equity futures are pointing to deep declines.

Sovereign yields are lower in this cautious climate, while yen has pushed higher along with gold. Crude oil has advanced as tensions rise between the U.S and Saudi Arabia over a missing journalist.

Politics and data are never a good mix and this week is awash with both.

Italy is to submit its contentious budget to the E.C. Already; the proposed budget has potentially broken specific thresholds, which would require a lot of debating from both parties. Expect Italian BTP yields again to come under pressure, backing up towards the psychological +4%.

The E.U meets on Wednesday and will get an update on the status of negotiations with the U.K’s Brexit. Expect the Irish border to be the ‘hot topic du jour. If there is insufficient progress, the possibility of a special summit next month to finalize an agreement looks dead in the water. Dealers expect the pound to remain volatile in the short-term.

The U.S Treasury report about the international economy and the FX market is to be released Tuesday. To neutral observers, China does not meet the threshold of “manipulation.” However, Trumps interpretation may be very different.

On the data front, the U.S releases retail sales this morning (08:30 am EDT) and FOMC minutes on Wednesday.

Across the pond, the U.K presents its labour report tomorrow, (Oct 16) inflation Wednesday (Oct 17) and retail sales Thursday (Oct 18).

In Canada, Friday’s upcoming data includes retail sales, and CPI – neither of the reports are expected to dissuade the market of pricing in a +25 bps rate hike at next weeks Bank of Canada (BoC) monetary policy decision.

1. Equities see red

In Japan overnight, the Nikkei closed at a two month low as automakers and other manufacturers were hit by news that the Trump administration would seek a provision about currency manipulation in future trade deals. The Nikkei share average ended down -1.8%, the weakest closing point since mid-Aug, while the broader Topix dropped -1.6%, the lowest close in seven-months.

Down-under, the ASX 200 fell to a six-month low overnight, led by the banking sectors growing concerns about the hit to earnings from an inquiry into misconduct. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell -1%. In S. Korea, the Kospi stock index fell -0.77% as institutions cut their exposure to riskier assets. The country’s biggest automaker Hyundai Motor slipped -1.7%, marking its lowest trading level in eight-years.

In China and Hong Kong, stock markets again slipped overnight following last week’s deepest dive in eight-months, as investors await the latest twist in the Sino-U.S trade dispute. The Shanghai Composite index closed lower by -1.5%, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng closed -1.4% lower.

In Europe, regional bourses trade lower across the board, tracking U.S futures and Asian indices lower. The FTSE and sterling (£1.3140) trade a tad lower after the E.U and U.K paused Brexit talks until after this week’s mini-summit.

U.S stocks are set to open deep in the ‘red’ (-0.8%).

Indices: Stoxx600 -0.6% at 356.8, FTSE -0.3% at 6976, DAX -0.4% at 11474, CAC-40 -0.6% at 5066, IBEX-35 -0.3% at 8876, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 19225, SMI % at -0.8%, S&P 500 Futures -0.8%

bco_usd_2018-10-14_2d_m-6766109

2. Oil prices rise on Saudi tensions, gold higher

Oil prices remain bid this Monday morning as tension over the disappearance of a Washington post journalist and Saudi critic, Jamal Khashoggi, fuelled supply worries, although concerns over the long-term demand outlook dragged on sentiment.

Brent crude oil jumped +$1.49 a barrel to a high of +$81.92 before easing to +$81.13, up +70c. U.S crude (WTI) was last up +40c at +$71.74.

Saudi Arabia has been under pressure since Khashoggi, a U.S. resident, disappeared on Oct. 2 after visiting the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.

President Trump has threatened “severe punishment” if it is found that the journalist was killed in the consulate.

On Sunday, the Saudi’s said it would retaliate to any action taken against them over the Khashoggi case. The market is tentatively concerned that the Saudis may use oil as a tool for retaliation.

Despite prices starting the week better bid, there are still lower that last week’s high print.

Also limiting price gains is a report from the IEF last Friday stating that the market looked “adequately supplied for now” and cut its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have jumped +1% to hit a three-month high as global stocks resumed their fall and investors wrestled with the impact of the ongoing Sino-U.S. trade war and higher U.S interest rates. Spot gold is up +0.9% at +$1,228.24 an ounce, while U.S gold futures are up +0.8% at +$1,231.80 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-14_2d_m-1240249

3. Italian and Portugal yields fall

Portuguese and Italian government bond yields have fallen this morning, with prices outperforming euro zone peers after ratings agency Moody’s upgraded Portugal’s credit rating back to investment grade.

Portugal’s 10-year bond yield fell -4 bps to +2.01% after Moody’s lifted its credit rating to Baa3 on Friday.

The positive periphery sentiment from Portugal has spilled over into Italy’s battered bond market. Italian 10-year BTP yields are down -4.5 bps to +3.53%.

Note: Expect Italian yields to trade rather volatile this week as Italy presents its budget to the E.C.

Elsewhere, the yield on U.S 10’s fell -1 bps to +3.15%. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield has dipped -1 bps to +0.49%, the lowest in more than a week. In the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has eased -2 bps to +1.614%, the lowest in more than a week.

gbp_usd_2018-10-14_2d_m-9179945

4. Dollar’s safe haven flows ease

Risk aversion flows initially provided a bid for the traditional safe-haven currencies of JPY (¥111.75) and ‘big’ USD, however, market sentiment has eased a tad ahead of the U.S open.

GBP (£1.3147) opened below the psychological £1.31 handle on concerns that a Brexit agreement might be slipping away after the U.K and E.U negotiators were said to have called ‘a pause’ in their Brexit talks and would now wait for the outcome of a summit mid-week (Wed) before any resumption.

TRY ($5.8208) is firmer by over +1% outright for its seventh session gain on optimism that relations between Turkey and U.S would improve following the release of U.S Pastor Brunson.

Bitcoin prices have spiked +6.5% this morning, jumping above +$6,600. While the catalyst behind the move higher is not clear and with few ready to label bitcoin a “true store of value” in turbulent times, BTC has held up better than most of late.

eur_usd_2018-10-14_2d_m-4919249

5. Embarrassing losses in Bavarian election shake Merkel’s coalition

Germany’s grand coalition could become even further unstable after coalition members suffered humiliating results in an election in the southern state of Bavaria.

Chancellor Merkel’s Bavarian allies slumped to their worst election results in almost 70 years and her junior coalition partners, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), saw support in Bavaria halved.

The SPD had hoped that infighting over immigration between Merkel’s Christian Democrats (CDU) and the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CDU) allies would give them a boost in Bavaria.

But instead, the party saw support fall to just under +10%, prompting a discussion over the sustainability of its alliance with Merkel’s conservatives at the national level.

Note: SPD members are still bitter over their leaders’ decision to join a Merkel-led government.

Merkel’s authority may be called into question as soon as in two-weeks in an election in the western state of Hesse – the state is ruled by Merkel’s CDU in a coalition with the Greens, but polls suggest she is losing further support.

fxhm_all_20181012-8255704

interest-rate-percent-increase-300x200-5378625

major-currencies-risk-7496781

Friday October 12: Five things the markets are talking about

Volatility, in particular, for equities, has notched aggressively higher this week, now that sovereign bond yields are beginning to price out cheap money.

Stronger than expected U.S economic data and weak European underlying inflation in key countries is being blamed as the specific trigger for this week’s ‘bearish’ bout.

However, Chinese trade data released earlier this morning showed better-than-expected growth in Chinese exports has, at least temporarily, helped ease investor concerns about the damage to China’s economy from U.S tariffs and other trade friction.

China’s trade surplus with the U.S widened to a record +$34.1B in September as exports to the American market rose by +13% y/y, despite a worsening tariff war.

Global equities have staged a robust recovery; the ‘big’ dollar trades steady, U.S Treasury yields back up and crude oil prices recover while still heading for the biggest weekly drop in three-months.

Nevertheless, a gradual Fed rate increase remains the order of the day, especially after yesterday’s muted U.S CPI data – the market is pricing in a +25 bps move in December.

Since the Fed’s last meeting in September all data has been in line with the Fed’s depiction of an economy in which low unemployment will be coupled with inflation running near +2% for the foreseeable future.

1. Stocks sell off ends in Asia

Chinese stocks, among the biggest losers in a global market selloff this week, rallied overnight, as investors reassessed the impact of the Sino-U.S trade spat on the country’s economy and its markets.

In Japan, the Nikkei ended higher on Friday as investors took heart from gains in Chinese equities on upbeat export data, which generated buying in manufacturers exposed to China. The Nikkei share average gained +0.5%. On Thursday, the index slid -3.9% and for the week the index was down -4.6%, its biggest weekly drop since March. The broader Topix traded flat.

Down-under, Australia’s ASX 200 lagged most of Asia Pacific overnight as the heavily weighted energy and financial sector held the index back. It ended +0.2% higher, but fell -4.7% for the week. In S. Korea, its stock market rebounded from one of its biggest drops in seven-years. The Kospi rallied +1.5%, its first gain this month. The index fell -4.7% for the week.

In China, the main stock indexes bounced higher overnight after suffering massive losses this week, as investors went bargain hunting on the back of stronger Chinese exports data. At the close, the Shanghai Composite index was +0.9% higher, after touching near four-year lows yesterday. The index was down -7.6% for the week, its worst weekly performance in eight months. The blue-chip CSI300 index closed +1.49% higher.

In Europe, regional indices trade higher across the board rebounding from multi-month lows following a rebound in U.S index futures and Asian Indices.

U.S stocks are set to open deep in the ‘black’ (+0.8%).

bco_usd_2018-10-10_2d_m-5581397

2. Oil rebounds, but pares gains on adequate supply, gold lower

Oil has rallied overnight; rebounding after two-days of heavy declines, though prices pared gains after an IEA report deemed supply adequate and the outlook for demand weakening.

Brent crude has rallied +76c to +$81.02 a barrel, having dropped by -3.4% yesterday. U.S crude (WTI) has added +71c to +$71.68.

Note: Brent is still on course for a -3.7% decline this week, the biggest weekly fall in about four-months.

Oil found support from data showing that China’s daily crude imports last month hit their highest in four-months and from a rebound in equities.

Gains were pared, after a monthly report by the IEA said the oil market looked “adequately supplied for now” after a big rise in production and trimmed its forecasts for world oil demand growth this year and next. “This is due to a weaker economic outlook, trade concerns, higher oil prices and a revision to Chinese data,” said the IEA.

Ahead of the open, gold prices are under pressure as global equities rally, but the ‘yellow’ metal trades within striking distance of its 10-week high print in yesterday’s session. Spot gold is down -0.4% at +$1,218.86 an ounce, after rallying +2.5%yesterday, as this weeks equity rout sent investors rushing to safe-havens. U.S gold futures are down -0.4% at +$1,222.30 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-10_2d_m-3502342

3. Yields back up on relief

Eurozone government bond markets show signs of relief as equity markets rebound. The 10-year Bund yield is trading +2.3 bps higher at +0.54%, pulling the yields of other core and semi-core issuers higher.

Note: Bunds yields are down from five-month highs reached earlier this week at +0.58%.

Eurozone periphery government bond yields trade lower, indicating a lower level of concern, at least for the day. Italy’s 10-year BTP yield is trading -4.5 bps lower at +3.53%.

Note: Italian 10-year bond yields rose to five-year highs earlier this week on tension between Rome and the E.U over Italy’s expansionary budget plans.

Elsewhere, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has backed up +3 bps to +3.18%, the biggest advance in a week. In the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has gained +2 bps to +1.694%. In Japan’s 10-year JGB yield has climbed less than +1 bps to +0.15%.

eur_usd_2018-10-10_2d_m-7203242

4. Dollar stable, EM pairs rally

USD initially tested multi-week lows as a weak Wall Street soured its recent bullish sentiment. Nevertheless, the greenback is off its worst levels as the equity sell-off has eased.

After jumping to an 11-day high of €1.1611 overnight, the dollar has stabilized and EUR/USD trades slightly higher, last by +0.1% at €1.1593. However, expect Italian fiscal risks and the direction of U.S yields to continue to drive the EUR/USD.

Emerging-market currencies are having another good day after weathering the global equity selloff this week. The South African rand is up +1.1% at $14.483, and the Mexican peso has gained +1.5% at $18.8718. The Turkish lira has paired some of its gains, but its trading +2% at $5.9451 – up +5% on the week.

The PBoC set yuan at weakest level since March 2017, a day after U.S Treasury staff advised Secretary Steven Mnuchin that China was not manipulating its the exchange rate. The midpoint for the dollar was ¥6.9120.

GBP/USD (£1.3215) is trading within striking distance of its three-week highs on hope for a Brexit agreement at the upcoming E.U leader summit next week. There is speculation that PM May is close to an agreement, but obstacles remain, as she requires the DUP Party ally and rebel Tory members support.

eur_gbp_2018-10-10_2d_m-4981495

5. Eurozone factory output rebounds

Data this morning showed that industrial production in the eurozone rebounded strongly in August, as surges in Italy and the Netherlands offset weakness in Germany to suggest economic growth across the currency bloc continues at a modest pace.

The E.U’s statistics agency said industrial production was +1% higher in August than in July, and up +0.9% on year. The market was looking for a monthly gain of just +0.2%.

It was the first rise in production since May, following two straight months of decline.

Today’s healthy rebound will likely reassure the ECB that the economy is on course to grow more slowly this year than last, but still at a rate that will lead to new jobs being created, thereby pushing wages and inflation higher.

Note: The IMF trimmed its eurozone growth forecast for this year to +2% from +2.2%, noticeably downgrading its growth projection for Germany to +1.9% from +2.2%.

fxhm_all_20181012-8255704

major-currencies-risk-300x200-2766733

stock-market-graph-next-to-a-1-dollar-bill-showing-former-president-washington-red-trend-line-indicates-the-stock-market-recession-period-2

Wednesday October 10: Five things the markets are talking about

U.S treasury yields are largely stable, after declining from their seven-year high print yesterday.

Euro equities are on the back foot after Asia stocks managed to break a multi losing session.

Elsewhere, the ‘big’ dollar has stalled temporarily after U.S President Trump said the Fed should not raise interest rates as fast. However, Trump’s plea is unlikely to alter the broader theme of dollar gains in the short-term.

Dollar ‘bulls’ have yet to have a clear understanding of what the top is for the Fed cycle, and until the Trump administration changes its tune on China and trade, investors will continue to support the USD against emerging markets and pro-growth currencies.

For the dollar ‘bear’s’ next month’s midterm elections have the potential to derail dollar demand, especially where the loss of the House by the GoP would curtail most hopes for fresh fiscal stimulus. However, a month is a long time in politics.

Despite the U.S bond rout easing a tad, +$230B of new U.S debt is coming to the market this week, which should put pressure on dealers to back up yields.

U.S producer and consumer price data is also due in the next two-days and it too will determine where yields go from here.

1. Stocks mixed results

In Japan, the Nikkei edged a tad higher overnight as investors picked up defensive stocks on the dips, while index-heavyweight SoftBank dived on news it was to buy a majority stake in U.S shared office space provider WeWork. The Nikkei share average ended +0.2% higher, while the broader Topix was also up +0.2%.

Down-under, Aussie stocks rallied after its worst 48-hours in six-months. The ASX 200 closed +0.1% higher as the health-care sector rebounded +1.5%, reversing some of yesterday’s -3.9% losses, the biggest drop in seven-years. In S. Korea, the Kospi stock index closed down -1.12% overnight, hitting its lowest close in 18-months after the IMF cut its growth forecast for the country.

In China, stocks were mixed after the close overnight, as gains in utilities and communications led shares higher while losses in the energy sector led shares lower. At the close, the Shanghai composite rallied +0.18%.

In Hong Kong, stocks closed marginally higher earlier this morning, with investors remaining nervous about volatility in the U.S and a weak yuan. The Hang Seng Index edged up +0.08%.

In Europe, regional bourses continue their bearish tone with declines across the board. Sino-U.S trade concerns, coupled with Italian budget and U.K Brexit commentary continue to weigh on markets.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘red’ (-0.1%).

Indices: Stoxx600 -0.4% at 371.5, FTSE -0.1% at 7227, DAX -0.6% at 11904, CAC-40 -0.7% at 5283, IBEX-35 -0.6% at 9203, FTSE MIB -0.2% at 20023, SMI 0% at 8960, S&P 500 Futures -0.1%

bco_usd_2018-10-09_2d_m-5301660

2. Oil dips as IMF cuts growth outlook; eyes on hurricane

Oil prices have eased a tad after the IMF yesterday lowered its global growth forecasts. Nevertheless, markets are well supported on pullbacks as Hurricane Michael, a category 4, moves toward Florida causing the shutdown of nearly +40% of U.S Gulf of Mexico crude production.

Brent crude is down -20c at +$84.80 a barrel, after a +1.3% gain on yesterday. U.S light crude is down -15c at +$74.81.

Also providing an underlying bid is data showing crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, are declining before the imposition of new U.S sanctions next month.

According to tanker data, Iran’s crude exports fell further in the first week of October, as buyers sought alternatives ahead of U.S sanctions that are to take effect on Nov. 4. Iran exported +1.1M bpd of crude in the first week of October, down from at least +2.5M bpd in April – before President Trump imposed sanctions.

Yesterday, the IMF cut its global economic growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019, raising concerns that demand for oil may also slump.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold is holding steady in a narrow range overnight, as the ‘big’ dollar pulls back from its seven-week high – support remains strong for the dollar on the back of a strong U.S. economy and expectations of steady interest rate hikes by the Fed. Spot gold is little changed at +$1,189.35 an ounce, moving largely within a +$4 range. U.S. gold futures have rallied +0.1% to +$1,192.60 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-09_2d_m-5708336

3. Sovereign yields dip, including Italy’s BTP’s

Italian BTP yields have eased a tad this morning after Italy’s Economy Minister Giovanni Tria confirmed budget forecasts and said that he expected collaboration with the E.U over the budget.

After hitting multi-year highs yesterday, Italian government bond yields fell -2 bps along the curve – the two-year BTP yield fell to +1.70%. The spread of Italy’s 10-year BTP’s over Germany’s has widened +10 bps to +3.026%.

Yesterday, President Trump repeated his displeasure with higher short-term interest rates set by the Fed. Trump believes U.S inflation remains “in check,” which does not warrant a tighter monetary policy, especially at the Fed’s current pace.

The yield on U.S 10’s has eased -1 bps to +3.21%. In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield has decreased -1 bps to +0.54%, while in the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has backed up less than +1 bps to +1.719%.

eur_gbp_2018-10-09_2d_m-7006070

4. Dollar takes a breather

The pound (£1.3160 +0.10%) has advanced to a four-month high against the EUR and a two-week high against the dollar, on signs of momentum in the Brexit negotiations. According to the Times, a group of between 30 and 40 Labour members of parliament will defy Jeremy Corbyn and endorse a less hard-line proposal to prevent a ‘no-deal’ exit from the E.U.

Note: Both the U.K and E.U are said to have made progress in Brexit negotiations over Irish backstop.

Rising Italian bond yields continue to provide some resistance for the EUR (€1.1482), but major falls are not in the cards as long as the ‘single’ unit’s existence is not threatened, and as long as the ECB indicates ‘whatever it takes’ promise is in place.

The USD/JPY (¥113.19) is a tad higher as the yen snapped a four-day winning streak as some safe-haven flows retreated as U.S Treasury rates stabilized.

gbp_usd_2018-10-09_2d_m-2517153

5. U.K economy picked up in the summer

Data this morning showed that U.K economic growth picked up over the summer, supported by stronger retail sales and house building in response to warmer-than-usual weather.

According to the ONS, economic output in the three-months through August was +0.7% higher than in the three-months through May, equivalent to annualized growth of +2.8%.

However, there were signs that the U.K economy was losing traction towards the end of the period, with output flat in August compared with July.

According to the ONS, “the economy continued to rebound strongly after a weak spring with retail, food and drink production and house building all performing particularly well during the hot summer months.”

Note: The BoE indicated it would follow its two rate rises with a number of further moves over the coming years if the economy continues grow at around its current rate. However, expect the Brexit strategy to determine monetary policy, at least in the short-term.

Other data showed that the U.K’s trade deficit widened in August as its goods deficit deepened to -£11.2B from -£10.4B in July, while its manufacturing output was -0.2% lower in August than in July, a second straight month of decline.

fxhm_all_20181010-9074525

usd-stock-down-market-fx-300x157-9628157

bond-yields-up-or-down-9906631

Tuesday October 9: five things the markets are talking about

The first day back in a holiday-shortened trading week again sees U.S Treasury yields creeping higher, trading atop of their seven-year high yields. This aggressive backing up of sovereign yields this month is again putting pressure on risk assets.

However, overnight, equities traded mixed, with Asian bourses and U.S futures on the back foot, while Euro stocks have been able to move higher.

Yesterday saw the biggest one-day sell off in three-months of China stocks despite the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) cutting its RRR for the third time this year. Their easing actions have again put pressure on the yuan, which is sure to annoy Washington.

The IMF has cuts world 2018 and 2019 GDP forecast by -0.2% to +3.7%. It’s the first cut in two-years as the risk of balance has shifted to the downside due to escalating trade conflicts and tighter financial conditions.

On tap: The U.S Treasury is auctioning +$230B worth of debt this week. On Friday, the IMF and World Bank will hold meetings in Bali, with the world’s finance chiefs.

1. Stocks mixed results

Global risk aversion has put the yen (¥113.17) in demand, which is hurting Japanese stocks. Overnight, the Nikkei fell to a three-week low after stocks of firms with exposure to China weakened on worries about its economy while chip equipment makers tumbled, tracking weakness in U.S tech firms’ overnight. The Nikkei share average ended -1.3% lower, while the broader Topix dropped -1.8%.

Down-under, Aussie shares have also extended their sharp declines from Monday overnight; trading atop of their four-month lows, on investor concerns over growth outlook for the country’s largest trading partner China hurt sentiment. The S&P/ASX 200 index fell -1% at the close of trade, after losing -1.4% yesterday. In S. Korea, the Kospi was closed for a holiday.

In China, stocks rebounded overnight from Monday’s steep losses as authorities took further steps to support the economy and contain the effects of an escalating trade war with the U.S. The Shanghai Composite index closed +0.2% higher, while the blue-chip CSI300 index was up +0.3%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed down –o.1%.

Note: Dealers attribute yesterday’s steep losses in China to investors playing catch-up after a weeklong holiday, during which a sharp sell off in global bond markets had dragged down equity markets.

In Europe, regional bourses are trading mixed in quiet trading thus far.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘red’ (-0.3%).

Indices: Stoxx600 0% at 372, FTSE +0.1% at 7238, DAX -0.1% at 11938, CAC-40 0% at 5301, IBEX-35 +0.3% at 9232, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 19900, SMI -0.2% at 8951, S&P 500 Futures -0.3%

wtico_usd_2018-10-08_2d_m-3407500

2. Oil prices rise as Iranian crude exports fall, gold higher

Oil prices remain better bid, as further evidence emerges that crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, are declining before the imposition of new U.S sanctions. Also providing price support is a slow hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

Brent crude is up +55c at +$84.46 a barrel, after having fallen as low as +$82.66 yesterday. Brent hit a four-year high of +$86.74 last week. U.S light crude (WTI) is up +45c at +$74.74.

According to tanker data and an industry source, Iran’s crude exports fell further in the first week of October, as buyers sought alternatives ahead of U.S sanctions that are to take effect on Nov. 4.

Iran exported +1.1M bpd of crude in the first week of October, down from at least +2.5M bpd in April – before President Trump imposed sanctions.

Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the OPEC, said last week it would increase crude output next month to +10.7M bpd, a record. The market will wait to see if they follow through.

Meanwhile, oil companies operating in the Gulf of Mexico have closed -20% of oil production as Hurricane Michael moves toward the eastern Gulf States including Florida.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices are better bid on risk aversion amid concerns over a potential slowdown in China’s economic growth. Spot gold is up +0.2% at +$1,189.58 an ounce.

Note: Yesterday, it fell -1.2%, its biggest one-day percentage fall since the middle of August, and also touched a more than one-week low of +$1,183.19.

xau_usd_2018-10-08_2d_m-2302489

3. Sovereign yields on the move

On the weekend, China cut its Required Reserve Ration (RRR) for major banks by -100 bps to +14.50% to prevent the country’s credit conditions from getting too ‘tight.’ The PBoC’s easing bias highlights their policy divergence with the Fed.

The impact from Sino-U.S trade tensions is to become more noticeable in coming quarters, so an easing bias in monetary policy, coupled with an expansionary fiscal policy is expected to support China’s economy. The PBoC stated that it would continue with “prudent and neutral” monetary policy. Will investors buy into Beijing’s policy-easing measures or do they require more market-orientated reforms?

In Italy, BTP yields have backed up to new highs after Economy Minister Giovanni Tria addressed the parliament on the government’s budget plans. He called for a “constructive discussion with Brussels over the budget” and said Italy’s “structural deficit will recover once GDP and employment returns to pre-crisis levels.”

Italy’s five-year bond yield rose to +3.042%, its highest level in almost five-years, while 10-year bond yields hit a new 5-year high at +3.63%.

Elsewhere, the yield on 10-year Treasuries has advanced +2 bps to +3.25%, hitting the highest in more than seven-years with its fifth consecutive advance.

Note: The U.S treasury is to auction +$230B worth of debt this week.

In Germany, the 10-year Bund yield has climbed +3 bps to +0.56%, while in the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has increased +4 bps to +1.714%.

eur_usd_2018-10-08_2d_m-4652909

4. Dollar supported by yields

The USD is maintaining its firm tone across the G10 currency pairs as U.S Treasuries are still holding last week’s gains in yields.

Rising Italian bond yields continue to weaken the EUR (€1.1460), but major falls are not in the cards as long as the ‘single’ unit’s existence is not threatened, and as long as the ECB indicates ‘whatever it takes’ promise is in place. EUR/USD is last down -0.25% at €1.1460 even though 10-year Italian yields reach +3.628%, just shy of yesterday’s 2018 high of +3.631%

China’s effort to support its decelerating economy continues to heap pressure on the yuan. The yuan weakened beyond ¥6.93 this week, coming within striking distance of its lowest level in nearly two-years, after China moved over the weekend to free more funds for domestic banks. The currency briefly recovered to around ¥6.91 earlier this morning.

usd_cnh_2018-10-08_2d_m-1941864

5. German exports slipped in August

Data this morning showed that German exports slipped for the second-straight month in August, which may suggest that, the Sino-U.S trade conflict are dampening demand for goods.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, the total exports of goods fell -0.1% in August from the month before, while imports of goods dropped -2.7% in the period.

Note: German exports stumbled in August despite a weaker EUR. The EUR traded around $1.14 in mid-August compared with levels around $1.25 in early February.

Germany’s adjusted trade surplus stood at €18.3B in August, undershooting a consensus forecast of €19.0B and a surplus of €21.3B in August last year.

fxhm_all_20181009-4737952

bond-yields-up-or-down-300x188-9722333

employment_jobs_nfp_down1-9267839

U.S unemployment rate falls to a 49-year low

The September U.S unemployment rate fell to +3.7% from +3.9% in August, the lowest rate since 1969.

The U.S non-farm payrolls rose to a seasonally adjusted +134K in September, the smallest gain in the past 12-months.

It would appear that Hurricane Florence may have had a bigger than expected negative impact on September payrolls.

Digging deeper, +150K Americans entered the labor force, keeping the number of adults working or seeking work steady at +62.7% participation rate.

Wages

Wages increased last month and advanced +2.8% as expected. The market was looking for a headline print of +185K and a +3.8% unemployment rate.

Average hourly earnings for all private-sector workers increased +8c last month to +$27.24.

Today’s solid report will likely keeps the Fed on track to gradually lift its benchmark interest rate.

Today’s report showed the manufacturing, construction and health-care sectors added jobs last month, while the retail and leisure and hospitality lost jobs.

Market

Markets are swinging in both directions following the mixed report, with S&P 500 futures now down 6 points after initially gaining. The 10-year yield has backed up to +3.233% from +3.196% and the dollar also remains better bid across the board.

usd_cad_2018-10-04_2d_m-6375776

Canada added more jobs than expected in September, as a sharp rebound in part-time hiring pushed the unemployment rate down to +5.9%.

The economy added a net +63.3K jobs in September on a seasonally adjusted basis. Market expectations were looking for a net gain of + 25K on the month.

Canada’s jobless rate eased to +5.9%, matching market expectations.

Average hourly wages advanced +2.4% in September on a one-year basis.

After initially rallying on the release, the loonie (C$1.2930) trades close to unchanged.

employment_jobs_nfp_down1-284x300-9739611

nfp_wordcloud-8261981

Friday October 5: Five things the market is talking about

The granddaddy of economic indicators – U.S non-farm payrolls (NFP) for September – will be released later this morning (8:30 am EDT) along with the Canadian jobs report.

Today’s U.S number is ‘big,’ especially with this week’s aggressive backing up of the U.S yield curve. The sell-off in Treasuries, in part, has been justified by U.S data supporting the strength of their economy and the markets future inflation fears.

This morning’s payrolls headline print, coupled with wage growth numbers, will provide substance to what investors should expect, from an interest rate perspective in particular. Does the Fed’s dot-plot line up neatly or will the Fed push its benchmark past the neutral level?

Consensus is looking for a September headline print of +185K new jobs and an unemployment rate to ease another one-tenth to +3.8%. However, expect dealers to look beyond the headline and focus intently on the increase in average hourly earnings.

The August wage growth print at +2.9% was the largest y/y gain in nearly a decade. If September’s number comes in even stronger, will justify some dealers fears that inflation pressures are building, maybe faster than originally perceived.

Current expectations for wage growth m/m are +0.3%, which would equate to approximately +2.8% y/y.

1. Stocks mixed reactions ahead of payrolls

Euro equities are struggling for traction after the Asian session ended the week with a further sell-off overnight as the region’s tech companies were battered by concerns about their U.S business.

In Japan, the Nikkei fell to its lowest close in a fortnight, tracking Wall Street’s slide yesterday as rising U.S Treasury yields have reduced the attraction of most stocks except financial ones. The Nikkei share average ended -0.8%, while the broader Topix dropped -0.5%.

Down-under, Aussie shares edged higher on Friday, supported by gains from the financial sector, which managed to advance for a second session. The S&P/ASX 200 index closed +0.2% higher. The benchmark is off -0.4% for the week. In S. Korea, Kospi stock index also ended lower this morning (-0.31%) on fears of foreign fund outflows after U.S yields surged to a new seven-year high.

Note: China’s financial markets are closed for the National Day holiday and will resume trade on Oct. 8.

In Hong Kong, stocks fell for a fourth consecutive session, dragged by a selloff in tech stocks on fears that these companies will be the latest casualties in the Sino-U.S trade war. The Hang Seng Index was down -0.42%.

In Europe, regional bourses trade lower across the board, pressured by rising sovereign yields. Investors will take their cue from this mornings N. American employment reports.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘red’ (-0.2%).

Indices: Stoxx600 -0.7% at 377.2, FTSE -0.8% at 7359, DAX -0.8% at 12142, CAC-40 -0.5% at 5385, IBEX-35 -0.5% at 9264, FTSE MIB -0.9% at 20438, SMI -0.5% at 9053, S&P 500 Futures -0.2%

bco_usd_2018-10-04_2d_m-3803716

2. Oil prices rise on Iran sanctions, gold little changed

Oil prices trade atop of their four-year highs this morning as traders predict a tighter market due to U.S sanctions on Iran’s crude exports.

Brent crude oil is up +10c a barrel at +$84.68. Yesterday, Brent fell by -$1.34 a barrel or -1.6% – the contract is on course for a gain of +2.5% on the week. U.S light crude is up +30c at +$74.63, a gain of +2% on the week.

The market remains very ‘bullish’ with speculators gunning for $100 a barrel on fears that the U.S demands for an Iran oil embargo will create a significant supply shortfall.

Both benchmarks retreated yesterday following a rise in U.S oil indicated that they would raise output, however, pullbacks have been aggressively bought.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices are little changed as the market remains cautious after U.S Treasury yields hit seven year high yesterday and on expectations that a strong U.S payrolls report could boost the Fed case for a tighter monetary policy. Spot gold has inched down -0.1% to +$1,197.64 an ounce, while U.S gold futures are flat at $1,201.3 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-04_2d_m-4212954

3. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surprises

The RBI kept its policy steady in a surprise hold this morning, but changes its stance from “neutral” to “calibrated” tightening.

The central bank left the Reverse Repo Rate (RRR) unchanged at +6.25% (not expected) and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at +4.00% (as expected).

It’s the first pause in three-decisions in the current tightening cycle. Governor Patel is to keep a ‘close vigil’ on inflation outlook for the coming months, as the outlook is clouded with several uncertainties. He indicated that the benefits of a weaker INR currency would become somewhat muted from a slowdown in global trade and escalating tariff war.

INR stays near record lows as the ‘big’ dollar hit a fresh record high of $74.05 vs. $73.65 before the statement.

The euro area bond market is heading for its worst week in five-months, with fears about tighter central bank monetary policy and strong U.S economic data will push borrowing costs to new highs.

Germany’s 10-year Bund yield has gained +2 bps to +0.55%. In the U.K, the 10-year Gilt yield has climbed +3 bps to +1.697%, the highest in almost three-years. While further anti-E.U. rhetoric by Italy’s Deputy PM Salvini is again pushing BTP yields higher. Italy’s 10-year yield has jumped +3 bps to +3.363%.

eur_usd_2018-10-04_2d_m-4956275

4. Dollar remains strong ahead of payrolls

The ‘big’ dollar is maintaining a firm tone, trading atop of its three-month high, against G10 currency pairs ahead of this morning’s NFP print.

EUR/USD (€1.1497) remains within striking distance of this week’s low outright. Italian anti-E.U rhetoric coupled disappointing Italian draft budget details is again providing EUR ‘bears’ with further ammo.

GBP/USD (£1.3034) is holding above the psychological £1.30 handle as EU Brexit negotiators were said to believe that an agreement with Britain was ‘very close.’

USD/JPY (¥113.88) remained below the ¥114 level after testing above it earlier in the week due to higher U.S Treasury rates.

eur_gbp_2018-10-04_2d_m-6252217

4. German factory orders

Data this morning showed that factory orders in Germany rose strongly in August after two months of declines, boosted by strong foreign demand from outside the eurozone.
Orders, seasonally adjusted, rose +2% m/m. That follows a -0.9% drop in July and a -3.9% drop in June.

Note: Orders are still down -2.1% on the year, however, current data would suggest solid German growth has appeared in H2, 2018.

Digging deeper, domestic orders dropped -2.9% in August, but that was offset by a +5.8% rise in foreign orders.

Foreign orders from countries using the EUR dropped -2.2%, but those from non-eurozone countries rose +11.1%.

fxhm_all_20181005-1677775

nfp_wordcloud-300x253-2604350

italy-flag-9743399

Wednesday October 3: Five things the markets are talking about

European markets have so far shrugged off losses in Asia to post gains this morning amid hopes that Italy’s budget deficit could be lowered, but concerns about the country’s debt and budget plans remain.

The EUR (€1.1573) has rallied from yesterday’s six-week lows on hopes that Italy’s draft budget plan will pledge to cut the deficit to +2% in 2021, revising the government’s initial proposal. Italian bonds have surged after four-days of selling.

At least for the time being, the lack of contagion in the rest of the eurozone bond market from the rise in Italian government bonds shows that the budget talks are still perceived as a local issue, and this despite, Italy’s +2.4% deficit plan is a significant deviation from previous commitments.

Elsewhere, U.S Treasury yields remain atop of their recent highs after Fed Chair Powell yesterday welcomed wage growth, but expressed confidence that low unemployment would not support inflation that would require aggressive tightening.

Later this morning, U.K PM Theresa May will be speaking at the Tory party’s annual conference. Expect Brexit rhetoric to affect a hypersensitive sterling.

1. Stocks mixed results

In Japan, equities came under pressure overnight as automakers fell on a sharp decline in U.S new car sales last month and while financials retreated mostly on profit taking. The Nikkei share average lost -0.7%, though it was still holding at 27-year highs. The broader Topix fell -1.2%.

Down-under, Aussie stocks rallied from strong gains in resource-related stocks overnight, helped by higher gold and metal prices, while financials ended lower despite earlier gains. The S&P/ASX 200 index rose +0.3% at the close of trade. The benchmark fell -0.8% on Tuesday.

Note: Both China and S. Korea were closed for a holiday.

In Hong Kong, stocks fell for a second consecutive day, with investors staying on the sidelines preferring to look for hints on policy direction from China. The Hang Seng Index was down -0.52%.

In Europe, regional bourses have opened higher across the board. Investor risk sentiment has improved after Italian press reports new budget plans (see below). The financial and Telecom sector are the best performers, while the material sector is underperforming. Germany is closed for a holiday.

U.S stocks are set to open in the ‘black’ (+0.2%).

Indices: Stoxx600 +0.3% at 383.2, FTSE +0.2% at 7,487, DAX closed, CAC-40 +0.2% at 5,476, IBEX-35 +0.1% at 9,314, FTSE MIB +0.3% at 20,618, SMI +0.6% at 9,145, S&P 500 Futures +0.2%

bco_usd_2018-10-02_2d_m-9826327

2. Oil trades atop of its four-year highs

Oil trades atop of its four-year highs this morning, supported by expectations that U.S sanctions on Iran will tighten supply and strain the ability of the Saudi’s and other producers to pump more.

Brent crude is up +38c at +$85.18 a barrel. It reached +$85.45 on Monday, its highest level since November 2014. U.S crude (WTI) is up +24c at +$75.47.

Crude exports from Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, are already falling as the U.S sanctions kick in on November 4 deters buyers.

A recent survey of OPEC production found Iranian output in September fell by -100K bpd, while production from the group as a whole rose by +90K bpd from August.

Note: Crude prices have roughly tripled from lows hit in January 2016 after the OPEC and Russia cut output.

OPEC has so far ruled out any further production increase, beyond delivering the boost agreed in June, despite prices rallying further and more pressure from Trump.

Ahead of the U.S open, gold prices have edged a tad higher in the Euro session after gaining over +1% yesterday, supported by safe-haven demand as Italy’s budget plan sets it on course for a potential clash with the E.U. Spot gold is up +0.1% at +$1,203.31, while U.S gold futures are up +0.1% to +$1,207.06 an ounce.

xau_usd_2018-10-02_2d_m-1784961

3. Italian yields fall

In Europe, Italian bonds are rallying as some of the yesterday’s worries have eased on signs that Rome is open to cutting its budget deficits and debt in coming years.

Note: There are reports that the Italian deficit would fall to +2.2% of GDP in 2020 and to +2% in 2021 from the +2.4% earlier outlined.

Italian 2-year BTP yields have fallen -21 bps to +1.381%

In Germany, the 10-year Bund yields trade higher, indicating less investor appetite for safe havens amid the Italian turmoil. The 10-year Bund yield is trading +2 bps higher at +0.45%, while the 10-year BTP yield is trading -8 bps lower at +3.34%.

Elsewhere, the yield on U.S 10-year Treasuries has gained +1 bps to +3.07%.

usd_try_2018-10-02_2d_m-9170025

4. TRY falls on inflation data

The Turkish lira is under pressure after data this morning showed annual Turkish inflation jumped to +24.52% in September from +17.90% in August, lifting USD/TRY to a five-day high of $6.0912.

Note: The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) has been reluctant in the past to hike rates to curb inflation, especially since President Erdogan has previously expressed a preference for lower interest rates.

The EUR (€1.1565) continues to be driven by the Italian budget projections, this time going up on reports that Italy may not pencil in another 2.4% deficit-to-GDP projection for 2020 and 2021.

Sterling (£1.3004) is again trading atop of the psychological £1.30 handle. Expect the pound to remain hypersensitive to Brexit comments from PM Theresa May when she addresses party members at the Conservative party conference this morning.

eur_gbp_2018-10-02_2d_m-8393863

5. Eurozone retail sales fall for second consecutive month

Data this morning showed Eurozone retail sales fell for a second straight month in August, which may suggest that that economic growth has yet to rebound significantly from a slowdown in H1.

Eurostat reported retail sales across the 19-countries that use the ‘single’ unit was -0.2% lower in August than in July, although +1.8% up on the same month of 2017.

Last year, a surge in exports drove eurozone economic growth, but a weakening in overseas sales has been behind a loss of momentum this year. That has left the economy more reliant on household spending to drive the expansion, and falling retail sales are a major concern.

Note: Eurostat also cut its estimate for July to -0.6%, having previously calculated that sales fell by -0.2%.

Digging deeper, the drop in sales comes despite a fall in eurozone unemployment and a pickup in wage growth. But energy prices have risen more sharply over recent months, eating into the income available to spend on other goods and services.

fxhm_all_20181003-9540401

italy-flag-300x200-4972558