Technical crypto analysis based on breakout – Wait for breakout below 6135.92.

BTC –

Wait for breakout below 6135.92.

Technical observation

BTC pulled back to the resistance zone 6566.96-6533.44, price could not penetrate above it and was rejected before rallying steadily towards 6135.92, I expect a breakout below it with a big green candle followed by a correction to it for possible further decline in price, or a pullback to the above mentioned zone, followed by a rejection within it to re-sell BTC. Wait for the breakout below 6135.92 and a correction to it to sell BTC. In case there’s no breach below 6135.92 and instead there’s a pullback to 6566.96-6533.44, wait for the rejection of price to resell BTC within it with your ideal target still at 6135.92.

Trade signal

Wait for breakout below 6135.92.

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All bonus participates in drawdown!

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Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Buy within 1.3056-1.3025

GBPUSD – Flat

Buy within 1.3056-1.3025

Technical observation

GBP/USD went up as predicted, I expect a correction of price to 1.3056-1.3025 and a rejection of it within the zone for possible upwards movement of price towards 1.3119 and a possible breakout above it for a further rise in price towards 1.3999.wait for the correction to 1.3056-1.3025 then buy GBP/USD within it with your take profit at 1.3119 and stop loss slightly below 1.3025.in case of breakout above 1.3119,wait for correction to it to confirm further bullish momentum of GBP before you continue long with this pair. Only long positions look ideal on the daily chart above an d can be recommended within 1.3056-1.3025.

Technical levels

Resistance levels

R1.1.3124

R2.1.3178

R3.1.3266

Pivot

1.311

Support levels

S1.1.3036

S2.1.3002

S3.1.2915

Trade signal

Buy GBP/USD within 1.3056-1.3025 towards 1.3119.

Do you know against which currencies GBP is the most profitable?

Buy within 1.3056-1.3025

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Commodities Weekly: Copper nears 15-month low as fresh tariffs announced

The commodity space has generally struggled today amid escalations in the US-China trade war. US President Trump announced a 10% levy on Chinese imports from September 24, rising to 25% next year.  China has said it will decide today how to retaliate.

 

Base metals

COPPER fell as much as 2.3% this morning after US President Trump announced the next phase of tariffs on Chinese imports. The industrial metal edged down to 2.5605, approaching the August 15 low of 2.5393, which was the lowest since June 2017. Concerns about an escalation and prolongation of the US-China trade war and its possible impact on global growth are among the reasons for the pressure.

 

Precious metals

GOLD has potential to have its first up-week in four, despite the uptick in the US dollar after the fresh tariffs were announced. The metal is currently at 1,199.33, up 0.5% so far this week, and may be attempting a test of the 55-day moving average, which is currently at 1,213.28. That moving average has capped gold prices since April 25.

 

Gold Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

 

Speculative accounts reduced their net short exposure by 5,907 contracts in the week to September 11, according to the latest CFTC data. Bloomberg reports that gold holdings by Exchange Traded Funds shrank for the 17th straight week while those of the largest ETF fund, SPDR Gold Holdings, have fallen to their lowest since 2016.

 

SILVER is struggling to match the rebound gold has seen and is stuck close to the 30-month lows struck earlier this month. The gold/silver (Mint) ratio is holding near 10-year highs at 84.847, confirming silver’s struggles.

Speculative accounts reduced their net short positions in silver for the first week in six, according to CFTC data as at September 11. The nearest support point is probably the September 11 low of 13.9445 while resistance is possible at the August 28 high of 14.9993 and the 55-day moving average at 15.0598.

 

PLATINUM remains capped by the 55-day moving average, which has held on a closing basis since February 28. The metal is currently at 799.04 with the 55-day moving average at 811.63. Speculative net short positioning was reduced to 7,568 contracts, the smallest in nine weeks, according to CFTC data as at September 11.

 

PALLADIUM continues to benefit from the gradual shift from diesel-powered cars to gasoline-powered in the EU. Petrol-driven autos require catalytic converters, which use small amounts of palladium, and Bloomberg estimates that as much as 84% of 2018 consumption will be used in this area. This contrasts with the decline of platinum which is used more in diesel engines. The better outlook for palladium is reflected in speculative positioning, where accounts are net long and increased those longs to the highest in two months, according to latest data to September 11. The precious metal is now at 986.750, testing the 200-day moving average at 988.66.

 

 

Energy

CRUDE OIL prices have been pressured by the clouded demand outlook when faced with the escalating tariff war,  while the supply outlook also remains uncertain, with Iran sanctions due to kick in from November 4. WTI is slowly moving into the apex of a triangle pattern, which has been forming since the near-term peak on July 3. The breakout points today would be either $71.00 to the upside or $68.33 to the downside. WTI is currently trading at $68.724.

 

WTI Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

 

Brent crude peaked at $79.944 on September 12 and there is growing market chatter that OPEC members may be attempting to keep it neat $80 per barrel through to the US mid-term elections in November. The spread between Brent and WTI has narrowed to about 8.8 points from above 10 points last week.

 

NATURAL GAS is set for its second day of gains, though faces some tough technical resistance obstacles to overcome. Rising 0.3% today to 2.828, gas has three moving averages just above. The 200-day is at 2.8376, 55-day at 2.8455 and 100-day at 2.8590. The last time natural gas traded above all three moving averages was on September 12.

A German government spokesperson said yesterday that Germany’s gas market is open to all market participants. Currently Russia supplies 60% of German gas imports and there is speculation the US companies expect to start delivering liquefied natural gas to Germany within four years, even though it would cost more than Russian gas.

 

 

Agriculturals

The weather continues to play havoc with WHEAT supply chains as Australia contends with both droughts and cold snaps in various wheat-growing regions, with frost reported in the southern areas of Western Australia. Compensating somewhat for potential shortfalls in supply, Russia’s wheat exports are 48% higher this season than the previous one, according to data as at September 13 supplied by the Russian Agriculture Ministry. In contrast, the US revealed that its exports were down 10% y/y as at September 6.

Wheat continues to shy away from support at the 200-day moving average, which is at 4.7220 today, and has done since March 29. The commodity touched a two-month low of 4.739 on September 13 and has enjoyed a 3% bounce since then.

 

CORN took a tumble last week after the US Department of Agriculture boosted its forecasts for domestic production and stockpiles, even though farmers were planting less acreage as the yield per acre hit an all-time high.  Corn had its biggest one-day fall since June 19 on September 12, the day the report was released. The commodity is now at 3.346 after touching 3.339 earlier today, the lowest since July 17.

 

SUGAR has given back more than 50% of its August 22 to September 13 rally in the first two days of this week, and has broken back below the 55-day moving average at 0.1072. Sugar is currently trading at 0.10663.

The decline comes as news emerges that typhoon Mangkhut passed by most of China’s sugarcane growing area in the Guangdong province, and did not cause as much damage to the crop as initially feared. Guangdong province produces about one million tonnes of sugar each year, about 10% of the country’s output.

 

Sugar Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

 

SOYBEAN prices continue to be pressured by the US-China trade war with prices touching a two-month low this morning. Soybeans fell to 8.112, the lowest since July 16, and is facing its fourth down day in a row. The commodity is now at 8.155.

The drop comes even as news emerged of a potential supply disruption from China, where the top-growing region was hit by a frosty spell from September 9 to 10. This could cut output from the region by 4.5%, or 275,000 tons.

Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Sell within 1.3056-1.3025

GBPUSD – Flat

Sell within 1.3056-1.3025

Technical observation

Yesterday, GBP/USD rose to the resistance zone 1.3056-1.3025 but could not penetrate above it and was contained within the zone, right now it is rallying down towards the support 1.2687.Im looking to sell GBP/USD within the above mentioned zone with my take profit at 1.2687 and stop loss slightly above 1.3056, should price break below 1.2687, wait for a correction to confirm further bearish momentum of prices before you continue short with the pair. Long positions can only be advisable above 1.3056-1.3025 in case of a clear breakout above it with a big green candle followed by a retracement to it.

Technical levels

Resistance levels

R1.1.2994

R2.1.3072

R3.1.3192

Pivot

1.2955

Support levels

S1.1.2873

S2.1.2831

S3.1.271

Trade signal

Sell GBP/USD within 1.3056-1.3025 with your take profit at 1.2687 and stop loss slightly above 1.3056.

Do you know against which currencies GBP is the most profitable?

Sell within 1.3056-1.3025

More trading assets here…

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Forex Technical Analysis: Trend potential – Buy within 111.37-111.34

USDJPY – Down

Buy within 111.37-111.34

Technical observation

USD/JPY is rallying above a supportive zone 111.37-111.34, I expect a correction to the zone followed by a rejection of price within it for possible bullish movement towards 111.72 and a possible breakout above 111.72 for a further rise in USD. Wait for the correction to 111.37-111.34 then long the pair on the hourly chart above within the zone with your take profit at 111.72 and stop loss slightly below 111.34.Continue long with the pair after a breakout above111.72 followed by a correction to it. Short positions can only be advisable in case of a clear breakout below the zone with a big red candle and a correction to it.

Technical levels

Resistance levels

R1.111.04

R2.111.08

R3.111.15

Pivot

111

Support levels

S1.110.97

S2.110.92

S3.110.84

Trade signal

Buy USD/JPY within 111.37-111.34 with your take profit at 111.72 and stop loss slightly below 111.34.

Do you know against which currencies JPY is the most profitable?

Buy within 111.37-111.34

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Elliott waves crypto analysis – Wait for a clear but signal from 0.2515

XRP –

Wait for a clear but signal from 0.2515

Wave Analysis

During the previous trading day, Ripple barely touched the hourly support level 0.2515 before pulling back upwards. As long as the price is contained above this level, we expect a possible rally to the upper side. According to the hourly chart above, we’re waiting for a clear rebound from the support level 0.2515 to pick a long term long position. However, should the price break below 0.2515, then this will be a good place to look for a long term short position with an ultimate target at 0.2365 or even lower.

Trade Recommendation

Wait for a clear but signal from 0.2515

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Elliott waves crypto analysis – we’re short as long as the price remains below 228.60

ETH –

we're short as long as the price remains below 228.60

Wave Analysis

During the previous trading day, the impulsive wave (v) continued to the lowerside and is now below 228.60. As long as the price remains within the contracting wedge formation and also below 228.60, we expect further momentum to the lowerside with an ultimate target at 150.00. If this level is bronen, then further bearish momentum is expected. And on the other side, should the price breakout above the upper trendline, then further bullish momentum is expected with an ultimate target at 626.72.

Trade Recommendations:

we’re short as long as the price remains below 228.60

101% Double the volume

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Elliott waves crypto analysis – we’re looking for a long position from 5857.03

BTC –

we're looking for a long position from 5857.03

Wave Analysis

Bitcoin continues to correct itself to the lowerside but is still above the upper trendline. As long as the price remains above 5857.03, we expect a possible momentum to the upperside. The anticipated bullish price rally is the unfolding of an impulsive wave count and should break above 9389.70. A key support is seen at 5857, if this level can be broken, then an acceleration further to the lowerside is expected. You could wait for a clear breakout below this level to look for a long term long position with an ultimate target at 1057.72.

Trade Recommendations:

we’re looking for a long position from 5857.03

101% Double the volume

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Elliott waves analysis – we’re short from the upper trendline.

USDJPY – Down

we're short from the upper trendline.

Wave Analysis

Despite the previous days correction to the upper side, the US Dollar is still below the upper trendline. As we mentioned earlier this week, as long as the price is contained below the upper trendline, we expect a possible momentum to the lowerside. The anticipated bearish price rally is the continuation of an impulsive wave count and should break below 108.72. The ideal here is to wait for a clear rebound from the upper trendline to look for a long term short position towards 108.72. If the price should break below 108.72, then further movements downwards is expected.

Trade Recommendations:

we’re short from the upper trendline.

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Elliott waves analysis – we’re looking for a short position now

GBPUSD – Flat

we're looking for a short position now

Wave Analysis

The previous day only, the cable pulled back massively to the upper side and is now at a weekly resistance level 1.30403. As long as this level protects the upper side, we’re clearly waiting for a clear rebound from this level to pick a long term short position with an ultimate target at 1.19170. If you’re not short already, you can wait for a false breakout above this level to pick a long term short position towards 1.26. This view can only be invalidated in case the price breaks above 1.30401, if this is the case, then an impulsive wave count further upwards is expected.

Trade Recommendations:

we’re looking for a short position now

101% Double the volume

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All bonus participates in drawdown!

FreshForex cancels commissions!

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