U.S unemployment insurance weekly claims

In the week ending August 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 213,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 214,250, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 214,500 to 214,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending July 28, unchanged from the previous week’s unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending July 28 was 1,755,000, an increase of 29,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised up 2,000 from 1,724,000 to 1,726,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,745,250, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 1,741,750 to 1,742,250.

Read more Department of Labor

AUD/USD edges higher as retail sales beat estimate

Aussie edges higher as retail sales beat estimate

AUD/USD is trading marginally up on the day after Australia’s retail sales came in higher than expected in June. Sales rose 0.4% m/m, matching the expansion seen in May and higher than the +0.3% economists had predicted. With June data now available, the summary for the second quarter is complete and registered a 1.2% increase quarter-on-quarter, also higher than the 0.8% forecast, which could bode well for Q2 GDP, though this is not due to be released until September 4. AUD/USD had a knee-jerk reaction higher, but not aggressively so, reaching an intra-day high of 0.7373, as the US dollar retained its bid tone it had acquired in the NY session.

AUD/USD Hourly Chart

Source: Oanda fxTRade

Other currency pairs were equally confined to tight ranges. USD/JPY slid 0.01% as the Nikkei225 trimmed 0.57% off the index. GBP continued its weaker bias after the Bank of England’s dovish hike late yesterday, sliding to a two-week low of 1.3005 though notably still holding above the 1.3000 handle.

GBP Dives on Dovish BoE Hike

Yuan continues to reflect trade tensions

The People’s Bank of China fixed the yuan weaker by 0.6% against the US dollar today after headlines about China’s intention to retaliate against Trump’s musings to increase the tariff on the next $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% from 10% hit the wires yesterday. In intraday trading, USD/CNH hit a new recent high of 6.8970, the highest since May 2017.

Today’s data slate included China’s Caixin Services PMI for July which showed a dip to 52.8 from 53.9 the previous month and well below forecasts of 53.7.

Monthly payrolls lottery on tap

Trading was understandably muted in Asia will all eyes on the release of July US nonfarm payrolls later today. Latest surveys suggest the US added 190,000 jobs in July, less than the 213.000 recorded in June and below the six-month moving average of 215,000. Related data is expected to show unemployment easing off to 3.9% after last month’s unexpected surge to 4.0% while average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.3% m/m, a faster pace than in June.

Dollar Awaits Jobs Report Amid Trade Uncertainty

Other data includes services PMI reading from across Europe, Eurozone retail sales and Canada’s trade data for June.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar: www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

Have a great weekend.

US weekly jobless claims rebound from near 45-year lows

The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rebounded from a nearly 45-year low last week, but remained below a level that is associated with a tightening labor market.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 230,000 for the week ended Feb. 10, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Claims for the prior week were revised to show 2,000 more applications received than previously reported.

Claims fell to 216,000 in mid-January, which was the lowest level since January 1973. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 230,000 in the latest week.

Last week marked the 154th straight week that claims remained below the 300,000 threshold, which is associated with a strong labor market. That is the longest such stretch since 1970, when the labor market was much smaller.

The labor market is near full employment, with the jobless rate at a 17-year low of 4.1 percent. The tighter labor market is starting to exert upward pressure on wage growth, which will over time add to inflation pressures.

The Labor Department said claims for Maine were estimated last week. It also said claims-taking procedures in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands had still not returned to normal, months after the territories were slammed by Hurricanes Irma and Maria.

Last week, the four-week moving average of initial claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends as it irons out week-to-week volatility, rose 3,500 to 228,500.

The claims report also showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid increased 15,000 to 1.94 million in the week ended Feb. 3. The four-week moving average of the so-called continuing claims fell 5,750 to 1.94 million.


By the numbers: U.S January NFP fallout

  • Non-farm payrolls: +200k vs. +148k prev.
  • Private payrolls: +196k vs. prev. +146k)
  • Manufacturing payrolls: +15k vs. prev. +25k
  • Unemployment rate: +4.1% vs. prev. +4.1%
  • Average hourly earnings: +0.34% m/m, +2.9% y/y vs. prev. +0.4% m/m, +2.7% y/y
  • Workweek hours: 34.3 vs. prev. 34.5 – -0.2
  • U.S 10-year yield: +2.83%
  • U.S employers added +200,000 jobs in January (employers added an average of +181k a month in 2017).

    Construction, manufacturing and restaurants had strong job growth, while Government payrolls grew by +4k last month.

    Strong back-month revisions for average hourly earning and headline job prints – Dec payrolls revised to +160k and Nov revised to +216k

    Average hourly earnings rose +0.34% from Dec following an upwardly revised +0.4% gain. Year-over-year, it was +2.9% compared with projections for a +2.6% increase. December’s gain was revised upward to +2.7%.

    USD (€1.2455, £1.4165, ¥110.33, C$1.2361) is better bid across the board, while the 10-year yield has backed up to +2.834% as wage growth is starting to accelerate.