EUR/USD – Euro Hits 3-Year Higher as German Inflation Jumps

The euro rally is steady in the Friday session. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2503, down 0.02% on the day. On the release front, the German Wholesale Price Index climbed 0.9% in January, rebounding from a reading of 0.3% in December. In the US, Building Permits is expected to inch lower to 1.30 million, and Housing Starts are projected to improve to 1.23 million. As well, UoM Consumer Sentiment is expected to rise to 95.4 points.

The euro continues to trade above the 1.25 level this week. Earlier on Friday, EUR/USD touched its highest level since December 2014, as the US dollar remains under broad pressure. The euro has posted winning sessions every day this week, and the currency has gained 2.1% this week. US inflation indicators pointed upwards this week, but investors chose to focus on soft retail sales reports for January – Retail Sales posted a flat reading of 0.0%, and Core Retail Sales declined 0.3%, marking its first decline in five months.

The recent volatility in the currency markets has not gone unnoticed by Mario Draghi & Co. Last week, the ECB head expressed confidence that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the Bank’s target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are on the lookout for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September. Any hints from ECB policymakers about a change in policy could have a strong impact on the movement of the euro.

US Bond Auction TIPS the dollar

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Friday (February 16)

  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.2%. Estimate 0.9%
  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.29M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.23M
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.6%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 95.4
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Inflation Expectations

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

EUR/USD for Friday, February 16, 2018

EUR/USD for February 16 at 5:40 EDT

Open: 1.2506 High: 1.2556 Low: 1.2497 Close: 1.2503

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2286 1.2357 1.2481 1.2569 1.2660 1.2751

EUR/USD posted gains in the Asian session but has retracted in European trade

  • 1.2481 is providing support role
  • 1.2569 is a weak resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2481, 1.2357, 1.2286 and 1.2200
  • Above: 1.2569, 1.2660 and 1.2751
  • Current range: 1.2481 to 1.2569

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing little movement in the Friday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (63%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions and moving to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

DAX Climbs as Investors Ignore Spike in US Consumer Inflation

The DAX index has posted strong gains in the Thursday session. Currently, the index is trading at 12,453.00, up 0.92% since the Wednesday close. In the eurozone, trade surplus continues to grow, climbing to EUR 23.8 billion. This beat the forecast of EUR 22.4 billion. On Friday, Germany releases the Wholesale Price Index, which is expected to rebound with a gain of 0.2%.

European stock markets are higher on Thursday, as company earnings from major European corporations have been strong. The bank sector has posted strong gains, and this is reflected in bank shares on the DAX – Commerzbank is up 2.39%, and Deutsche Bank is close behind at 2.04%. It has been a blue February for the DAX, which has slipped 5.9%, as global stock markets endured a sharp correction last week. This week has seen some improvement, and US markets were up on Wednesday, despite soft retail sales as well as higher inflation. The recent sell-off was triggered by concern that stronger inflation would lead to an acceleration in rate hikes. So far, the stronger CPI numbers out of the US have not spooked investors.

The recent stock market turbulence has triggered volatility in the currency markets, and this is causing concern at the ECB. Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi said that he is more confident that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the Bank’s target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are on the lookout for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September.

Economic Calendar

Thursday (February 15)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 22.4B. Actual 23.8B

Friday (February 16)

  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.2%

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Thursday, February 15 at 6:00 EDT

Open: 12,446.00 High: 12,480.28 Low: 12,400.69 Close: 12,453.00

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

EUR/USD – Euro Rise Continues on Broad Dollar Weakness

The euro continues its upward movement and has posted gains in the Thursday session.  Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2483, up 0.27% on the day. In the eurozone, the trade surplus continues to grow, climbing to EUR 23.8 billion. This beat the forecast of EUR 22.4 billion. It’s a busy day in the US, highlighted by PPI and Core PPI reports for January. Both indicators are expected to record gains after declining in the December readings. The US will also release key manufacturing reports and unemployment claims. On Friday, the US releases key housing and consumer confidence numbers.

The euro has posted winning sessions every day this week, and continues to move upwards on Thursday. The euro has gained 1.8% this week, and posted strong gains on Wednesday, after the US releases pointed to stronger inflation and dismal retail sales.

The US dollar remains under strong pressure after Wednesday’s CPI and retail sales reports. CPI jumped 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.3%. Consumer spending reports in January were dismal. Retail Sales was flat at 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. Core Retail Sales declined 0.3%, well off the forecast of +0.2%. A catalyst for the recent market sell-off was fear of higher inflation, and with inflation indicators pointing upwards, the dollar and the stock markets could be in for rough ride in the coming weeks.

The recent stock market turbulence has triggered volatility in the currency markets, and this is causing concern at the ECB. Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi said that he is more confident that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the Bank’s target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are on the lookout for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September.

At the Edge of a Cliff

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (February 15)

  • 4:00 Italian Trade Balance. Estimate 4.44B. Actual 5.25B
  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 22.4B. Actual 23.8B
  • Tentative – Spanish 10-year Bond Auction. Actual 1.58%
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 17.7
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.5
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 229K
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.0%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.2%
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 72
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -193B
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 50.3B

Friday (February 16)

  • 2:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.29M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.23M
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.6%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 95.4

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

EUR/USD for Thursday, February 15, 2018

EUR/USD for February 14 at 5:30 EDT

Open: 1.2450 High: 1.2510 Low: 1.2448 Close: 1.2483

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2286 1.2357 1.2481 1.2569 1.2660 1.2751

EUR/USD continues to break through resistance lines. The pair inched higher in the Asian session and has recorded stronger gains in European trade

  • 1.2481 has switched to a support role after gains by the pair on Thursday
  • 1.2569 is the next resistance line

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2481, 1.2357, 1.2286 and 1.2200
  • Above: 1.2569, 1.2660 and 1.2751
  • Current range: 1.2481 to 1.2569

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is showing gains in short positions, as EUR/USD continues to move higher and cover long positions. Currently, short positions have a majority (61%), indicative of EUR/USD reversing directions and moving to lower ground.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.