Markets higher as earnings season gets underway

Earnings season eyed as trade war fears remain

We’re seeing some risk appetite return on Friday even as concerns about trade remain front and centre and shows no signs of improving.

European equity markets are trading in the green on Friday, taking the lead from the US session on Thursday where tech stocks drove a rally that saw the NASDAQ hit a record high. With earnings season getting underway, investors will be looking for reasons to be more optimistic having spent months reading about the risks that a trade war poses to the economy.

JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo will kick things off today and over the coming weeks, investors will be paying close attention not just to the results but also references to trade tariffs and the impact they are expected to have on future results, particularly those that have already been targeted in counter-measures taken or proposed against the US.

DAX steady as investors search for cues

Sterling slips as Trump warns of risks to US/UK trade deal

Trump has very much been in the spotlight this week, attending the NATO summit in Brussels before heading over to the UK to meet Prime Minister Theresa May. As ever, Trump was not afraid to express his views on the UK and Brexit ahead of the visit, warning that a trade deal with the US would not be possible under the model that May is seeking with the European Union, while also expressing his belief that Boris Johnson would make a good PM. This appears to have weighed on the pound in trade on Friday given the complications it could cause May and her team.

None of this will go down well with May – who has previously pushed strongly for this visit despite much protest – and comes at a terrible time for her but as Trump well knows, she is in a very weak position right now and is unlikely to fight back and, more importantly, he wants a Brexit that best suits the US. Whether Trump’s comments give more voice to dissenters among Brexiteers is yet to be seen but it certainly doesn’t help the PM as a trade deal with the US has long been touted as one of the benefits of leaving the EU.

First signs of tariffs impact in China’s June trade numbers

Chinese trade surplus increases as Trump plans more tariffs

Chinese trade data released overnight may be used as a source for Trump’s next attack on the world’s second largest economy, with exports having soared once again – rising 11.3% – increasing the surplus the country has with the US to $41.61 billion in June. While the main reason for such a spike is likely to be exporters front loading sales ahead of the tariffs being implemented, it’s likely that a stronger US economy and weaker yuan is also playing a role.

I expect this will be used as another example of the bad trade policies that Trump has repeatedly references but been unable to so far influence. Trump is attempting to force them back to the table with threats of another $200 billion in tariffs, something that has so far only been met with retaliation from China and others.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Live FX Market Analysis – 10 July 2018 (Video)

In this week’s webinar, Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discussed the latest Brexit developments as two members of her team resign after an apparently united and productive meeting on Friday. He also talks Trump, after the latest imposition of trade tariffs and ahead of his trip to the UK and the NATO summit, and previews the week ahead.

Craig also gives his live analysis on EURUSD (12:20), GBPUSD (15:03), EURGBP (17:50), AUDUSD (19:35), USDCAD (24:12), GBPCAD (26:19), NZDUSD (28:31), USDJPY (30:22), GBPJPY (32:25) and EURJPY (34:52).

GBP/USD – British pound steady on modest GDP growth

USD/JPY – Japanese yen dips to 7-week low, inflation reports next

Commodities Weekly: Gold saved by dollar’s retracement

Kuroda says BOJ sticking to game plan

BOJ to adjust policy to achieve price target

In a speech today, BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda vowed to continue to expand the monetary base to maintain the economy’s momentum in order to achieve the BOJ’s price target. He reiterated that the central bank would make necessary policy adjustments to reach that goal.

On the economy, he commented that it is expanding moderately and is expected to do so in the near term. Note: latest GDP data showed the economy contracted by 0.2% in the first quarter of 2018 compared with the last quarter of 2017. So I guess we just look through that Q1 data. USD/JPY basically ignored his comments, sticking to a tight range this morning and sliding a mere 0.03% to 110.435.

Sentiment stays mildly positive in Asia

Asian equity markets took comfort in the higher close on Wall St on Friday and posted modest gains. Robust US non-farm payrolls in June remained that catalyst, while the higher unemployment rate could be explained away by the jump in the participation rate to 62.9% from 62.7%. There was enough ammunition for USD bears in the average earnings numbers, which rose 0.2% m/m rather than the 0.3% expected. This lack of apparent wage pressures saw US yields edge lower, with the US dollar following suit. The Japan225 CFD rose 0.95%, and China50 jumped 2.18%.

For the USD, it’s all about this week’s CPI

GBP’s rise dented by Brexit headlines

News that the UK’s Brexit secretary David Davis had resigned caused a pause on GBP/USD’s rally through 1.33 this morning. Davis cited numerous disagreements over the past year with PM May in his resignation letter, and was of the opinion that the general direction of May’s policy will leave the UK in a weak negotiating position, at best. Later in the session Steve Baker, a minister in the Brexit department followed his boss’s actions. GBP/USD is currently up 0.19% on the day at 1.33084 after touching 1.33231 briefly earlier.

GBP/USD Daily Chart

Source: Oanda fxTrade

Trade war battle has commenced, investors ignore casualties

The first salvo of the US-China trade wars came and went, with both parties announcing like-for-like tariffs. Wall St pushed any implications to the back burner, instead preferring to focus on the jobs data. The next confrontation will likely to be the review on a further $16 billion worth of Chinese goods with no doubt China responding accordingly.

Could the next RBA move be a cut?

In a somewhat contrarian view, a research note from NAB has suggested that higher bank funding costs and tighter credit conditions could mean that the RBA’s next move is a rate cut. They acknowledged that the barrier for a rate cut is quite high, but suggested investors should at least consider some probability that a cut could happen.

In a similar view, a note from Citibank also commented that there is a rising risk that the RBA could remove its guidance for the next rate move to be a hike, citing the global trade situation. Again, it acknowledged that the bar for such a shift is high, and would require the RBA to adjust its growth and inflation forecasts first. Markets are currently pricing in a 25bps rate hike by mid-2019.

Second-tier data

Today’s economic calendar is less than inspiring, with German trade data for May the expected highlight. We also hear central bank speakers in the form of BOE’s Broadbent and the Fed’s Kashkari.

You can see today’s full data calendar at https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

BoE Hearing and Fed Minutes in Focus

US Futures Continue to Pare Last Week’s Gains

US equity markets are expected to open in the red again on Wednesday, tracking losses in Europe as stocks continue to pare last week’s strong rebound.

It’s been a relatively quiet start to the morning and the week, with the bank holiday in the US and Canada contributing to this. The European session has been dominated by economic data releases so far and that’s likely to continue, with flash manufacturing and services data due from the US shortly after the open. It’s the FOMC minutes that will be released later in the day though that will likely be the standout event from a US perspective, particularly as the statement caused quite a stir at the end of January.

US Yield Curve Now (Orange) and on 29 January 2018 (Purple)

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

The sell-off in the markets may have come a couple of days later but part of the initial trigger was a more hawkish sounding Fed, with the jobs report then being the straw that broke the camel’s back two days later. While the minutes may not generate quite the same response, traders will likely monitor what they say very closely for signs that policy makers are now leaning more towards three to four rate hikes this year, rather than two or three.

EUR/USD – Euro Ticks Lower as German Manufacturing PMI Softens

GBP Slips as Unemployment Ticks Higher

Sterling is coming under a bit of pressure this morning after UK jobs data for the three months to December showed wages still growing at a moderate pace and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%. While a higher reading on wage growth may have triggered a more bullish response from the pound, the data turned out to be quite insignificant as it’s unlikely to change the views at the Bank of England.

UK Unemployment Rate

Wages have been slowly ticking higher recently and they could continue to do so as workers demand more due to the higher cost of living and a tight labour market. The move higher in the unemployment rate won’t be a concern at this moment with it potentially being a one-off move and still very low. As long as inflation remains at upper range of what is deemed acceptable, the central bank seems intent on raising rates at least once more this year, despite the temporary factors driving it and economic uncertainty that lies ahead.

Yield-o-Mania

BoE Inflation Report Hearing Eyed as Markets Price in Rate Hikes

Members of the Monetary Policy Committee including Governor Mark Carney will appear before the Treasury Select Committee later on today, during which they will be questioned on their latest inflation report forecasts and expectations for interest rates going forward. While it’s always interesting to get the views of policy makers and the pound will likely be volatile throughout, I wonder how much of what they have to say will now already be priced in, with at least one rate hike now expected this year.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

OANDA fxTrade Advanced Charting Platform

With that in mind and with Brexit transition negotiations likely to dominate the next month, we could see the pound lose some of the momentum that’s been gathering over the last six months or so. It’s recent failed to make new highs on two occasions against the dollar and it’s also slipping against the yen in a possible sign that traders are beginning to lock in profits ahead of what could be a difficult month.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

FX Market Analysis – 20 February 2018 (Video)

Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses this week’s key event risks, with the most notable being the UK jobs report and BoE inflation report hearing.

Craig also gives his live analysis on EURUSD (11:04), GBPUSD (15:13), EURGBP (17:04), AUDUSD (18:36), USDCAD (20:02), GBPCAD (22:01), NZDUSD (24:47), USDJPY (25:44), GBPJPY (26:47) and EURJPY (28:24).

USD/JPY – Dollar Punches Above 107 Yen, Fed Minutes Ahead

Higher Yields Pushing Dollar Up

Intermezzo

GBP/USD – Pound Dips at Start of Week

The British pound is trading quietly in the Monday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4002, down 0.21% on the day. On the release front, there are no US events, with US markets closed for Presidents’ Day. In the UK, Rightmove HPI gained 0.8%, its strongest gain in four months. On Tuesday, the UK releases CBI Industrial Order Expectations.

GBP/USD gained 1.3% last week, as the dollar continued to lose ground to its major rivals. However, the dollar rebounded with gains on Friday, following strong US housing and consumer confidence reports on Friday. Building Permits jumped to 1.40 million in January, up from 1.30 million in December. This easily beat the estimate of 1.29 million. Housing Starts followed suit and improved to 1.33 million in January, up from 1.19 million a month earlier. This was well above the forecast of 1.28 million. There was more positive news from consumer confidence, as UoM Consumer Confidence climbed to 99.9, well above the estimate of 95.4 points. Despite stock market volatility, consumer confidence was boosted by the recent tax reform package and a red-hot labor market.

Should cryptocurrencies be regulated? Bitcoin has seen wild fluctuations in recent months, ranging from under $1000 to just under $20,000. There are growing calls for these currencies to be regulated, and central banks could play a key role in such a move. However, last week, ECB President Mario Draghi poured cold water on any ECB involvement, saying that it was not the ECB’s responsibility to ban or regulate Bitcoin. Draghi added that the ECB was exploring the use of blockchain, a digital technology to monitor bitcoin transactions. Still, with Bitcoin gaining more and more popularity, the Bank of England and other central banks will have to pay greater to attention to the impact of Bitcoin on the currency markets.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Sunday (February 18)

  • 19:01 British Rightmove HPI. Actual 0.8%

Monday (February 19)

  • 14:45 BOE Governor Carney Speaks

Tuesday (February 20)

  • 6:00 British CBI Industrial Order Expectations

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Monday, February 19, 2018

GBP/USD February 19 at 12:25 EDT

Open: 1.4032 High: 1.4050 Low: 1.3959 Close: 1.4002

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3744 1.3809 1.3901 1.4010 1.4128 1.4271

GBP/USD posted gains but then retracted in Asian trade. In the European session, the pair showed limited movement. In North American trade, GBP/USD headed lower but has recovered

  • 1.3901 is providing support
  • 1.4010 was tested earlier in resistance and remains under pressure

Current range: 1.3901 to 1.4010

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3901, 1.3809 and 1.3744
  • Above: 1.4010, 1.4128, 1.4271 and 1.4345

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

In the Monday session, GBP/USD ratio is showing a majority for short positions (54%). This is indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD continuing to move lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

US Indices on Course For Full House

Futures Point to Full Week of Gains After Sharp Correction

US equity markets could end the week with a full house of gains as long as indices manage to hold onto the small gains being seen in futures ahead of the open.

This would also bring an end to two shocking weeks for equity markets that saw more than 10% quickly wiped off indices, the first time we’ve seen such a move since the start of 2016. While the prospect of higher yields and interest rates, combined with a surge in volatility, have been blamed for the decline, the rebound we’re now seeing reaffirms the belief that fundamentals are still strong which should prevent the situation deteriorating further.

There are a few economic releases that traders will likely be aware of as the week draws to a close. The UoM consumer sentiment reading is always an interesting release, given the importance of the consumer to the US economy. Building permits and housing starts will also be released ahead of the open on Friday. The bulk of companies may have already reporting numbers for the fourth quarter but there are still some more to come today, with 13 due to release earnings including Coca Cola and Kraft Heinz.

US Bond Auction TIPS the dollar

Sterling Resilient After Poor Retail Sales Figures

UK retail sales data for January was once again disappointing, providing further evidence that the post-Brexit squeeze on consumers is heaving an economic impact. While this could be partially reversed as sterling continues to rebound off its lows and wage growth picks up to offset higher living costs – assuming it does – we’re seeing few signs that the squeeze is easing and that’s being reflected in the spending figures.

The pound has actually been quite resilient to the data in the aftermath of the release. While it has since declined against the dollar, this has primarily been driven by the bounce in the greenback. The consumer squeeze and economic implications of it are already known and priced in, traders are far more concerned with wages and inflation and the impact this will have on interest rates, which makes the jobs report next Wednesday far more important.

GBPUSD Daily Chart

OANDA fxTrade Advanced Charting Platform

Bitcoin Struggling to Overcome Psychological Barrier

Bitcoin is once again threatening the psychological $10,000 barrier but as was the case on Thursday, it’s struggling to maintain its push above and once again finds itself falling slightly short. While a break above $10,000 should be no more significant than any other, it would appear to represent an end to the plunge in bitcoin that saw it fall around 70% from its mid-December highs and for this reason, it’s proving a difficult hurdle to overcome.

Bitcoin (CME) Daily Chart

Source – Thomson Reuters Eikon

Those expecting a similar response to breaking above $10,000 that we saw last time – a near 100% increase in less than three weeks – may also be disappointed. We’re not seeing the kind of euphoria that accompanied the break at the end of November when the speculative fomo trade was contributing greatly to its meteoric rise. The crash of the last couple of months has made this less of a one-way move and those that got burned may not be so keen to jump back in.

DAX Gains Ground as Dollar Under Pressure

All of this is assuming that bitcoin will break above $10,000 which is far from certain when you consider the gradual – by its own standard – bounce from its lows. This could quite easily be another corrective move and the lows may be tested once again. The absence of a constant negative news flow is helping but whether this can be sustained is debatable.

Economic Calendar

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

GBP/USD – Pound Higher as Sentiment Remains Negative on Greenback

The British pound continues to head higher this week. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.4067, up 0.48% on the day. On the release front, there are no British events on the schedule. In the US, PPI gained 0.4%, matching the forecast. Core PPI also gained 0.4%, beating the estimate of 0.2%. Both indicators rebounded after declines in the previous month. Unemployment Claims climbed to 230 thousand, just above the estimate of 229 thousand. On Friday, the US releases key housing and consumer confidence numbers. The UK will release Retail Sales.

The pound has posted winning sessions every day this week, and has continued the upward trend on Thursday. GBP/USD has gained 1.7% this week, and punched above the 1.41 line earlier on Thursday. The pound posted strong gains on Wednesday, as US consumer spending reports were weaker than expected. Still, US fundamentals remain solid, as the US economy is showing strong expansion, the labor market remains at capacity, and inflation levels are moving higher. This has led some analysts to attribute the recent sag in the US dollar to technical factors rather than fundamental reasons.

With US inflation indicators pointing higher in January, the Fed will be reevaluating its projection for rate hikes in 2018. Currently, the Fed is planning three hikes this year, but that could change to four, or even five hikes, if inflation continues to head upwards and the robust US economy maintains its strong expansion.  The new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, received a rude welcome from the stock markets, as he started his new position last week. Powell sought to send a reassuring message on Tuesday, saying that the Fed is on alert to any risks to financial stability. However, it is clear that the Fed’s hand is limited when it comes to stock markets moves, and the volatility which we saw last week could resume at any time.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Thursday (February 15)

  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 17.7. Actual 13.1
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.5. Actual 25.8
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 229K. Actual 230K
  • 9:15 US Capacity Utilization Rate. Estimate 78.0%. Actual 77.5%
  • 9:15 US Industrial Production. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.1%
  • 10:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 72. Actual 72
  • 10:30 US Natural Gas Storage. Estimate -193B. Actual -194B
  • 16:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 50.3B

Friday (February 16)

  • 4:30 British Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Building Permits. Estimate 1.29M
  • 8:30 US Housing Starts. Estimate 1.23M
  • 8:30 US Import Prices. Estimate 0.6%
  • 10:00 US Preliminary UoM Consumer Sentiment. Estimate 95.4

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Thursday, February 15, 2018

GBP/USD February 15 at 11:30 EDT

Open: 1.3999 High: 1.4100 Low: 1.3995 Close: 1.4067

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3809 1.3901 1.4010 1.4128 1.4271 1.4345

GBP/USD continues to break through resistance levels. On Thursday, GBP/USD inched higher in the Asian session. In European trade, the pair posted considerable gains. GBP/USD edged higher in North American trade but has given up these gains

  • 1.4010 is providing support
  • 1.4128 is the next line of resistance

Current range: 1.4010 to 1.4128

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.4010, 1.3901, 1.3809 and 1.3744
  • Above: 1.4128,, 1.4271 and 1.4345

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is showing gains in long positions. Currently, short and long positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction GBP/USD will take next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

GBP/USD – Pound Jumps as US Inflation Drags Down Dollar

The British pound has posted gains in the Wednesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3867, up 0.53% on the day. On the release front, consumer inflation beat expectations. CPI jumped 0.5%, above the estimate of 0.3%. Core CPI remained steady at 0.3%, edging above the forecast of 0.2%. consumer spending reports were dismal. Retail Sales was flat at 0.0%, short of the estimate of 0.5%. Core Retail Sales declined 0.3%, well off the forecast of +0.2%. The sole British event, CB Leading Index declined 0.2%.

The US dollar has posted broad losses in the North American session, as CPI indicators were higher than expected. Concerns of high inflation was a catalyst for the market sell-off last week, and fears of resumption in the downward spiral are weighing on the dollar. What about the Federal Reserve? Currently, the Fed is planning three hikes this year, but that could change to four, or even five hikes, if inflation continues to head upwards and the robust US economy maintains its strong expansion.  The new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, received a rude welcome from the stock markets, as he started his new position last week. Powell sought to send a reassuring message on Tuesday, saying that the Fed is on alert to any risks to financial stability. However, it is clear that the Fed’s hand is limited when it comes to stock markets moves, and the volatility which we saw last week could resume at any time.

There were no surprises from British inflation numbers on Tuesday. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer spending, was unchanged at 3.0% in January. CPI has hovered around the 3% level since August, well above the BoE target of 2.0%. Wage growth has not kept up with the brisk clip of inflation, putting a further squeeze on the British consumer. This could dampen consumer spending, a key driver of the economy. High inflation is putting pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, and last week the Bank said that it was considering faster and larger rate increases than it had projected back in November. Many analysts have circled May as the date of the next rate increase.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (February 14)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.5%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%. Actual 0.0%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate +0.2%. Actual -0.3%
  • 9:30 British CB Leading Index. Actual -0.2%
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.4%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.8M. Actual 1.8M

Thursday (February 15)

  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 17.7
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.5
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 229K
  • 9:30 British CB Leading Index. Actual -0.2%
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.8M. Actual 1.8M

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Wednesday, February 14, 2018

GBP/USD February 14 at 11:40 EDT

Open: 1.3893 High: 1.3972 Low: 1.3801 Close: 1.3867

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3613 1.3744 1.3809 1.3901 1.4010 1.4128

GBP/USD inched higher in the Asian session but then recorded losses in European trade. The pair has posted sharp gains in North American trade

  • 1.3809 is providing support
  • 1.3901 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line and could break in the North American session

Current range: 1.3809 to 1.3901

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3809, 1.3744, 1.3613
  • Above: 1.3901, 1.4010, 1.4128 and 1.4271

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

GBP/USD – Pound Higher as British CPI Surprises Markets

The British pound has posted gains in the Tuesday session. In North American trade, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3892, up 0.39% on the day. On the release front, British CPI was unchanged at 3.0%, edging above the forecast of 2.9%. There are no major events out of the US. On Wednesday, the US releases inflation and retail sales data. Traders should be prepared for some movement from the pair during the North American session.

There were no surprises from British inflation numbers on Tuesday. CPI, the primary gauge of consumer spending, was unchanged at 3.0% in January. CPI has hovered around the 3% level since August, well above the BoE target of 2.0%. Wage growth has not kept up with the brisk clip of inflation, putting a further squeeze on the British consumer. This could dampen consumer spending, a key driver of the economy. High inflation is putting pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates, and last week the Bank said that it was considering faster and larger rate increases than it had projected back in November. Many analysts have circled May as the date of the next rate increase.

A key factor in last week’s market turbulence was investor concern over more rate hikes due to inflation. Given this concern, it’s likely that the US CPI and Core CPI releases on Wednesday will be a market-mover. The markets will be glued to the inflation indicators, and if inflation numbers are higher than expected, we could see some volatility from the US dollar as well as the stock markets.

GBP/USD Fundamentals

Tuesday (February 13)

  • 4:30 British CPI. Estimate 2.9%. Actual 3.0%
  • 4:30 British PPI Input. Estimate 0.7%. Actual 0.7%
  • 4:30 British RPI. Estimate 4.1%. Actual 4.0%
  • 4:30 British Core CPI. Estimate 2.6%. Actual 2.7%
  • 4:30 British HPI. Estimate 4.9%. Actual 5.2%
  • 4:30 British PPI Output. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.1%
  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 106.2. Actual 106.9
  • 8:00 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks

Wednesday (February 14)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

GBP/USD for Tuesday, February 13, 2018

GBP/USD February 13 at 12:00 EDT

Open: 1.3837 High: 1.3924 Low: 1.3833 Close: 1.3892

GBP/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.3613 1.3744 1.3809 1.3901 1.4010 1.4128

GBP/USD posted small gains in the Asian and European sessions. The pair continues to move higher in North American trade

  • 1.3809 is providing support
  • 1.3901 was tested earlier in resistance. It is a weak line and could break in the North American session

Current range: 1.3809 to 1.3901

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.3809, 1.3744, 1.3613
  • Above: 1.3901, 1.4010, 1.4128 and 1.4271

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (55%), indicative of trader bias towards GBP/USD reversing directions and moving lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.