FXStreet (Córdoba) – The Russian ruble (RUB) continues to depreciate, with USD/RUB reaching historic highs above 85.0 on Thursday. According to the UBS analyst team, the fall in oil prices is weighing on the Russian economy and the currency, but the latest moves are stronger than what would be implied by oil price moves alone. “Current levels bring us closer to our risk scenario of domestic deposits increasingly being exchanged into dollars”, UBS notes.Key Quotes“There are few options left to effectively ease the depreciation pressure amid falling oil prices, and policymakers are aware of the high cost of interventions. Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina said that the central bank will intervene only if it sees risks to financial market stability, but at this stage, the bank believes, these are not prevalent. Ultimately, much depends on an eventual stabilization of oil prices, and this remains uncertain in the current environment. In the near term, we therefore see a high likelihood of further bouts of RUB weakness, but reaffirm our view that USDRUB should move below 80.0 again as soon as market conditions moderate and oil prices stabilize. Our USDRUB forecasts are 73.0 in three months and 70.0 in six to 12 months.”“For this year and beyond, the price at which oil finds a new equilibrium is crucial. Russia’s economy remains in recession, and current energy prices imply a sustained contraction. In 4Q15, a range of economic indicators, including industrial production and investment, stabilized somewhat. But this trend is not yet broad based and occurred only at weak levels. Near-term setbacks are likely. Also, fiscal constraints have increased, and the government is currently reviewing the budget for this year. Policymakers, as indicated by recent central bank decisions, are prudently assessing growth-inflation dynamics before resuming interest rate cuts. Although inflation has declined sharply (Dec: 12.9% y/y, prior: 15.0%), the weak ruble limits the scope for monetary easing for the time being.”“The next regular policy rate decision is to be announced on 29 January. The current rate of 11% keeps the currency attractive from an interest rate perspective, but weighs on the country’s growth prospects. Over the past year, the ruble has taken on an increasingly important role as an external shock absorber for the Russian economy. This makes it more volatile, but also supports the external balance, as shown by the sound current account surplus that Russia runs.””Although current depressed oil prices appear temporary, market rebalancing takes time. Not only the excess supply needs to be factored in, but also subdued global growth, which is clouding demand prospects. We think stable to somewhat higher oil prices are realistic in the course of 2016.”The Russian ruble (RUB) continues to depreciate, with USD/RUB reaching historic highs above 85.0 on Thursday. According to the UBS analyst team, the fall in oil prices is weighing on the Russian economy and the currency, but the latest moves are stronger than what would be implied by oil price moves alone. “Current levels bring us closer to our risk scenario of domestic deposits increasingly being exchanged into dollars”, UBS notes. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись Russian ruble in freefall, but USD/RUB expected to move back below 80.0 – UBS впервые появилась Forex.
FXStreet (Córdoba) – Crude prices staged an impressive rally on Friday, with WTI futures gaining more than 9% to end the week at $32.19 a barrel, posting the largest one-day gain since April.WTI had hit a fresh 12-year low of $26.20 last Wednesday when February contract expired, but prices have been in recovery mode ever since. For the week, sweet, light crude rose 9.4% posting its first weekly gain for the year. Baker Hughes reported in its weekly rig count that US oil rigs fell to 510 for the week ending on Jan 15, falling for fifth consecutive week.Most of the rally was attributed to corrective moves in an oversold market, as concerns about a global supply glut remain in place.Crude prices staged an impressive rally on Friday, with WTI futures gaining more than 9% to end the week at $32.19 a barrel, posting the largest one-day gain since April. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись Oil gains 9% and finishes the week above $32.00/bbl впервые появилась Forex.
FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that EM is enjoying a nice bounce to end the week. Key Quotes:”Surging oil is one factor, while further ECB (and potentially BOJ) stimulus is another. The Fed tightening, while still …Запись EM’s rally but is it sustainable? – BBH впервые появилась Forex.
The USD/CHF pair is likely to advance further. The intraday technical picture of USD/CHF is positive now after yesterday’s strong rebound. A support base around 1.0065 has been formed, which suggests stabilization. Besides, a bullish cross has been ide…Запись Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 22, 2016 впервые появилась Forex.
The USD/JPY pair is expected to trade in higher range. Overnight major U.S. stock indexes rallied thanks to rebound of oil prices and ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments hinting at more easing for Europe. Apart from energy shares, shares in consumer …Запись Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 22, 2016 впервые появилась Forex.
FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for next week’s key UK data.Key Quotes:”We see balanced risks around the fourth quarter’s GDP print, with consensus and us both looking for an increase of 0.5% q/q. While the rotation of demand remains choppy (weak manufacturing, strong services), overall growth is still healthy and points to an economy that continues to gradually move back towards trend.”Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for next week’s key UK data. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись UK GDP to confirm economy on track? – TDS впервые появилась Forex.