Russian ruble in freefall, but USD/RUB expected to move back below 80.0 – UBS

FXStreet (Córdoba) – The Russian ruble (RUB) continues to depreciate, with USD/RUB reaching historic highs above 85.0 on Thursday. According to the UBS analyst team, the fall in oil prices is weighing on the Russian economy and the currency, but the latest moves are stronger than what would be implied by oil price moves alone. “Current levels bring us closer to our risk scenario of domestic deposits increasingly being exchanged into dollars”, UBS notes.Key Quotes“There are few options left to effectively ease the depreciation pressure amid falling oil prices, and policymakers are aware of the high cost of interventions. Bank of Russia governor Elvira Nabiullina said that the central bank will intervene only if it sees risks to financial market stability, but at this stage, the bank believes, these are not prevalent. Ultimately, much depends on an eventual stabilization of oil prices, and this remains uncertain in the current environment. In the near term, we therefore see a high likelihood of further bouts of RUB weakness, but reaffirm our view that USDRUB should move below 80.0 again as soon as market conditions moderate and oil prices stabilize. Our USDRUB forecasts are 73.0 in three months and 70.0 in six to 12 months.”“For this year and beyond, the price at which oil finds a new equilibrium is crucial. Russia’s economy remains in recession, and current energy prices imply a sustained contraction. In 4Q15, a range of economic indicators, including industrial production and investment, stabilized somewhat. But this trend is not yet broad based and occurred only at weak levels. Near-term setbacks are likely. Also, fiscal constraints have increased, and the government is currently reviewing the budget for this year. Policymakers, as indicated by recent central bank decisions, are prudently assessing growth-inflation dynamics before resuming interest rate cuts. Although inflation has declined sharply (Dec: 12.9% y/y, prior: 15.0%), the weak ruble limits the scope for monetary easing for the time being.”“The next regular policy rate decision is to be announced on 29 January. The current rate of 11% keeps the currency attractive from an interest rate perspective, but weighs on the country’s growth prospects. Over the past year, the ruble has taken on an increasingly important role as an external shock absorber for the Russian economy. This makes it more volatile, but also supports the external balance, as shown by the sound current account surplus that Russia runs.””Although current depressed oil prices appear temporary, market rebalancing takes time. Not only the excess supply needs to be factored in, but also subdued global growth, which is clouding demand prospects. We think stable to somewhat higher oil prices are realistic in the course of 2016.”The Russian ruble (RUB) continues to depreciate, with USD/RUB reaching historic highs above 85.0 on Thursday. According to the UBS analyst team, the fall in oil prices is weighing on the Russian economy and the currency, but the latest moves are stronger than what would be implied by oil price moves alone. “Current levels bring us closer to our risk scenario of domestic deposits increasingly being exchanged into dollars”, UBS notes. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись Russian ruble in freefall, but USD/RUB expected to move back below 80.0 – UBS впервые появилась Forex.

EUR/JPY: recovered despite dovish ECB

FXStreet (Guatemala) – EUR/JPY remains broadly consolidated in a range between 126.16 and 128.43. There was a brief sell off post the ECB as markets brace and prepare for the ECB to act as noting that December saw an acceleration of the slow down.However, the cross recovered as markets took it as risk positive. Analysts at Rabobank explained, “Risk appetite received a welcome fillip from the dulcet tones of ECB President Draghi yesterday. It is not often that a central bank manages to deliver a significant easing of monetary conditions through an as expected steady policy announcement but, through knocking the EUR significantly lower with promises of more policy stimulation Draghi managed just that. “EUR/JPY levelsKaren Jones, chief analyst at FXStreet explained that EUR/JPY’s outlook is negative. “We no longer think that was a bearish pennant, given the price action. Nonetheless near term rallies are likely to struggle 128.50/128.94.This is the location of the short term downtrend and the 55 day ma, and while below here, the market should remain under pressure.” Jones added, “The market has a 2013-2016 support line at 126.52 that needs to give way on a closing basis (this is now favoured). We also note the 126.08, 2015 low and consider this to be the break down point to the 121.87 50% retracement of the bull move from 2012.”EUR/JPY remains broadly consolidated in a range between 126.16 and 128.43. There was a brief sell off post the ECB as markets brace and prepare for the ECB to act as noting that December saw an acceleration of the slow down.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись EUR/JPY: recovered despite dovish ECB впервые появилась Forex.

Oil gains 9% and finishes the week above $32.00/bbl

FXStreet (Córdoba) – Crude prices staged an impressive rally on Friday, with WTI futures gaining more than 9% to end the week at $32.19 a barrel, posting the largest one-day gain since April.WTI had hit a fresh 12-year low of $26.20 last Wednesday when February contract expired, but prices have been in recovery mode ever since. For the week, sweet, light crude rose 9.4% posting its first weekly gain for the year. Baker Hughes reported in its weekly rig count that US oil rigs fell to 510 for the week ending on Jan 15, falling for fifth consecutive week.Most of the rally was attributed to corrective moves in an oversold market, as concerns about a global supply glut remain in place.Crude prices staged an impressive rally on Friday, with WTI futures gaining more than 9% to end the week at $32.19 a barrel, posting the largest one-day gain since April. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись Oil gains 9% and finishes the week above $32.00/bbl впервые появилась Forex.

USD/JPY ends week higher and far from lows

FXStreet (Córdoba) – USD/JPY not only erased losses but is about to end the week with a gain of almost 200 pips. The pair during the week reached the lowest level in a year at 115.94 but then reversed sharply and near the end of trading is holding near 119.00. The pair peaked on Friday, during the American session at 118.79, the highest level in two weeks. It was holding near the top, still with bullish momentum, supported by a recovery in stocks and by the US dollar. Greenback strengthened in the currency market during the second half of the day. USD/JPY bottomed? The US dollar not only rose sharply from the lows but also broke last week highs and climbed above the 20-day moving average. From a technical perspective, a short-term bottom could have been reached. The main trend continues to favor the yen and the USD/JPY could face strong resistance around current levels, that during most of last year worked as a support area. For the pair to recover or to avoid falling into new lows it may need that risk appetite remains in place or at least that equities and crude oil consolidate in the coming days. So far the correction that took place during Thursday and Friday across financial markets was not based on an improvement in global fundamentals. USD/JPY not only erased losses but is about to end the week with a gain of almost 200 pips. The pair during the week reached the lowest level in a year at 115.94 but then reversed sharply and near the end of trading is holding near 119.00.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись USD/JPY ends week higher and far from lows впервые появилась Forex.

EM’s rally but is it sustainable? – BBH

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman explained that EM is enjoying a nice bounce to end the week. Key Quotes:”Surging oil is one factor, while further ECB (and potentially BOJ) stimulus is another. The Fed tightening, while still …Запись EM’s rally but is it sustainable? – BBH впервые появилась Forex.

EUR/CHF ends week eyeing 1.10

FXStreet (Córdoba) – EUR/CHF rose for the fifth week in a row and posted the second highest weekly close in a year. The Swiss franc was the most affected currency after the European Central Bank meeting. When Mario Draghi mentioned that monetary policy will be reexamined in March, the euro and the Swissy plummeted in the market and CHF took the worst part. The pair moved all week in a range near monthly highs. It continues to face resistance below 1.1000 and remains supported above 1.0900. EUR/CHF attempting go hold above 1.0950

The euro rose on Friday and peaked at 1.0988, hitting the highest level since September but then pulled back modestly. It is about to post the first daily close above 1.0950 in months, signaling a possible continuation of the rally. But in order to open the doors fro more gains EUR/CHF needs to break 1.1000 and hold above. The mentioned area, capped the upside during 2015 (after the SNB shock) and from there the pair stated a bearish correction. The euro is pointing toward 1.1000 but is not clear if it will be able to break it. EUR/CHF rose for the fifth week in a row and posted the second highest weekly close in a year. The Swiss franc was the most affected currency after the European Central Bank meeting. When Mario Draghi mentioned that monetary policy will be reexamined in March, the euro and the Swissy plummeted in the market and CHF took the worst part.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись EUR/CHF ends week eyeing 1.10 впервые появилась Forex.

GBP/USD on a minor recovery through 50 4hr sma

FXStreet (Guatemala) – GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4330 with a high of 1.4361 and a low of 1.4203.There were reversals across the board at the end of this week and sterling was in the mix on a recovery from 1.4078 with a break of the 50 sma on the 4hr sticks. The better risk mood is benefiting the pound, despite the less bullish outlook in the economy and Brixit fears. GBP/USD reversesThe pound got a lift earlier this week when the UK labour market report showed another drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% from 5.2%. However, earnings were more of a mixed picture. Today, retail sales ex‐autos fell 0.9% in December, and analysts at Scotiabank explained that this was well below the –0.3% consensus call, but likely due partly to adverse weather in the UK recently. GBP/USD levelsThe analysts at Scotiabank explained that GBP/USD short‐term technicals were neutral/bullish and cable is trying to base and given today’s highs at 1.4364 and there notion that 1.4270 was key, they are looking for the 1.44 handle. “The strong bear trend evident in recent weeks remains intact, but the pound is trying to pull a little higher at least. We think gains through 1.4270/75 may allow for GBP/USD to recover to the 1.44 area in the next week or two.”GBP/USD is currently trading at 1.4330 with a high of 1.4361 and a low of 1.4203.

(Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись GBP/USD on a minor recovery through 50 4hr sma впервые появилась Forex.

Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 22, 2016

The USD/CHF pair is likely to advance further. The intraday technical picture of USD/CHF is positive now after yesterday’s strong rebound. A support base around 1.0065 has been formed, which suggests stabilization. Besides, a bullish cross has been ide…Запись Technical analysis of USD/CHF for January 22, 2016 впервые появилась Forex.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 22, 2016

The USD/JPY pair is expected to trade in higher range. Overnight major U.S. stock indexes rallied thanks to rebound of oil prices and ECB President Mario Draghi’s comments hinting at more easing for Europe. Apart from energy shares, shares in consumer …Запись Technical analysis of USD/JPY for January 22, 2016 впервые появилась Forex.

UK GDP to confirm economy on track? – TDS

FXStreet (Guatemala) – Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for next week’s key UK data.Key Quotes:”We see balanced risks around the fourth quarter’s GDP print, with consensus and us both looking for an increase of 0.5% q/q. While the rotation of demand remains choppy (weak manufacturing, strong services), overall growth is still healthy and points to an economy that continues to gradually move back towards trend.”Analysts at TD Securities offered their outlook for next week’s key UK data. (Market News Provided by FXstreet)Запись UK GDP to confirm economy on track? – TDS впервые появилась Forex.