Dollar marks time in Asia as traders consider a busy data week

Traders scale back activity ahead of data/event rush

A busy data week culminating in the monthly US jobs report and approaching month-end all conspired to keep traders in Asia sidelined and currencies range-bound at the start of the week. Traders were also mulling the aftermath of US GDP data release on Friday which showed the US economy growing 4.1% on an annualized basis in Q2. The US dollar struggled to get any kind of lift from the strong data as analysts and commentators immediately looked towards Q3 numbers, which are expected to be nowhere near as buoyant. That didn’t stop US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin from saying that he believed the US economy could sustain growth of at least 3% for the next 4-5 years.

Dollar Mixed Ahead of Busy Week in the Market

Japan retail spending ticks up as BOJ meets

The only data releases in Asia were second-tier. Retail trade in Japan rose 1.8% y/y, above economists’ forecasts of a 1.6% gain while large retailers’ sales posted positive growth for the first time in three months. USD/JPY was mostly steady, rising 0.09% while EUR/JPY gained 0.04%. AUD/USD was mostly sidelined, holding close to the 0.74 handle with a slide of 0.13% to 0.7391.

Gold continues to hover near one-year lows as latest data from Chicago shows speculative investors reduced their net long gold positions in the week to July 24. Oil prices extended Friday’s slide, easing down to $69.50

See the MarketPulse data calendar here: https://www.marketpulse.com/economic-events/

Markets on Central Bank watch

The Bank of Japan starts its two-day meeting today, the first of many to follow during the week. There is mounting speculation that the BOJ will discuss an adjustment to its JGB target rates and possibly scaling back its investments in ETFs that track the Nikkei. When it comes to old-fashioned monetary policy, analysts are unanimous in their view that there will be no change in rates, with the possibility of allowing the 10-year JGB yield to move above zero percent, which is its current target level. The 10-year yield is trading at 0.11% today and notably has held above 0% since September last year.

The Bank of England is seen hiking rates by 25 bps to 0.75% even though inflation appears to be on a downward tack and data fails to be convincing while the FOMC is not expected to result in any rate changes, more a confirmation that a September hike is still very much on the cards. The Reserve Bank of India is also expected to increase its benchmark rate while Brazil’s central bank is seen standing pat.

Japan 10-Year JGB Yield Chart

Source: Bloomberg (https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GJGB10:IND)

Live FX Market Analysis – 24 July 2018

In this week’s FX webinar, Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses the latest events that are moving financial markets – Trump attacks the Fed, Brexit plans widely criticized etc – and previews the week ahead.

Craig also gives his live analysis on EURUSD (9:22), GBPUSD (11:48), EURGBP (18:45), AUDUSD (19:34), USDCAD (21:04), GBPCAD (22:14), NZDUSD (23:31), USDJPY (24:38), GBPJPY (27:41) and EURJPY (29:09).

Live FX Market Analysis – 10 July 2018 (Video)

In this week’s webinar, Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discussed the latest Brexit developments as two members of her team resign after an apparently united and productive meeting on Friday. He also talks Trump, after the latest imposition of trade tariffs and ahead of his trip to the UK and the NATO summit, and previews the week ahead.

Craig also gives his live analysis on EURUSD (12:20), GBPUSD (15:03), EURGBP (17:50), AUDUSD (19:35), USDCAD (24:12), GBPCAD (26:19), NZDUSD (28:31), USDJPY (30:22), GBPJPY (32:25) and EURJPY (34:52).

GBP/USD – British pound steady on modest GDP growth

USD/JPY – Japanese yen dips to 7-week low, inflation reports next

Commodities Weekly: Gold saved by dollar’s retracement

FX Market Analysis – 20 February 2018 (Video)

Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam discusses this week’s key event risks, with the most notable being the UK jobs report and BoE inflation report hearing.

Craig also gives his live analysis on EURUSD (11:04), GBPUSD (15:13), EURGBP (17:04), AUDUSD (18:36), USDCAD (20:02), GBPCAD (22:01), NZDUSD (24:47), USDJPY (25:44), GBPJPY (26:47) and EURJPY (28:24).

USD/JPY – Dollar Punches Above 107 Yen, Fed Minutes Ahead

Higher Yields Pushing Dollar Up

Intermezzo

Weekly FX Market Update – 6 February 2018 (Video)

It’s been an extremely turbulent 24 hours in the financial market with the Dow recording its largest ever daily points drop as panic set in and traders tried to work out what was triggering such a strong sell-off. Markets have stabilized a little on Tuesday but there remains some concern among traders which continues to weigh.

Senior Market Analyst Craig Erlam talks about what he thinks has triggered such a move and goes through this week’s other key events in the markets.

He also gives his live analysis on EURUSD (18:08), GBPUSD (20:02), EURGBP (22:12), AUDUSD (23:32), USDCAD (25:10), GBPCAD (27:16), NZDUSD (28:54), USDJPY (30:58), GBPJPY (32:53) and EURJPY (34:12).

DAX Recovers After Falling to 5-Month Low

Beware: FX Space is Calm, But Appearances Can Be Deceiving

Plop Plop Fizz Fizz Oh What a Relief it is